SEREMBAN: The 16th Negri Sembilan election remains too close to call, with voter turnout and fence-sitters expected to determine which coalition forms the next state government, an IDE Research Centre (IDERC) survey indicates.
It found that "no party has a comfortable path" to securing the 36-seat state assembly, with eight marginal seats expected to decide the balance of power.
It estimated that between 12% and 18% of voters remain undecided, with the group expected to play a decisive role as they are most influenced by candidate credibility, local issues, the cost of living, the state government's performance and developments during the final stretch of campaigning.
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The report projected voter turnout of between 68% and 70%, with 62.3% of respondents saying they would definitely vote and 24% indicating they were likely to do so.
It said the actual turnout would depend on party mobilisation, the weather, transport and last-minute campaign developments.
Young voters were identified as the biggest mobilisation challenge, with only 51.8% of those between 18 and 30 saying they were certain to vote, compared with 67.4% of voters 31 to 60 and 63.4% of those 61 and above.
Although 63.4% of respondents had already decided which party to support, the survey found that 33.8% would only make up their minds after Nomination Day or later, including 14.8% who would decide on polling day itself.
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The report concluded that the election would ultimately be decided by three groups, namely the fence-sitters, late-deciding voters and supporters who may not turn out to vote.
It added that parties which could best increase turnout, particularly among young, Chinese and Indian voters; and who managed to convince undecided voters and address the cost of living and local issues; would have the best chance of forming the next state government.
Negri Sembilan goes to the polls on Saturday (Aug 1).
