Not connecting: Trump participating in the opening ceremony of the Asean Summit in Manila on Nov 13, 2017. — AFP
Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto knows very well that he should have a strong personal connection with United States President Donald Trump to avoid or minimise the impacts of Trump’s unpredictable and impulsive policymaking.
However, Prabowo should also be prepared when Trump wants a return for his ending of the president’s 20-year US travel ban in 2020. But don’t worry too much.
Since his return, President Trump has acted like a dictator, not the president of the world’s largest democracy, who thinks he has complete control all over the world. Like his previous administration, he threatens the world with economic sanctions, including Indonesia. He still uses old “flattering” and “private photo session” tactics against dictators such as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is now also much less impressed as Chinese President Xi Jinping has assured unlimited protection to Russia, especially in facing the US.
The world has changed and people are now more prepared to face Trump. China’s grip on the world economy has more decisive impacts than the US. When he first came to power in January 2017, the world was shocked, but they realised that Trump was no longer the world’s only superpower, although he was still dangerous and, therefore, should be accommodated, at least to please him.
Look at North Korea as an example. The US president raised eyebrows last month when he referred to North Korea as a “nuclear power,” an unexpected recognition from the North’s biggest enemy.
Trump is the only US president to meet a North Korean leader. He held three summits with Kim. Trump also became the first sitting US president to enter North Korea. But now Kim is much closer to Xi and Putin. He even sent his troops to help the Russians in the war in Ukraine. Kim shows much less interest in Trump now.
Trump also threatened severe economic sanctions on Putin, but again, it will not mean much because China has provided assistance and will continue to help.
In the context of Indonesia, Trump may demand the return of his favour from Prabowo. For 20 years, the US government barred Prabowo from entering US soil because of his alleged human rights abuse record. It was a massive humiliation for him.
Trump came as a saviour when his administration lifted Prabowo from the blocklist and allowed him to go to Washington DC.
In October 2020, as then-defence minister, Prabowo visited the Pentagon at the invitation of Defence Secretary Mark Esper. The blacklist ending was very meaningful for Prabowo in preparing for the 2024 presidential elections.
Without Trump’s help, Prabowo could still be seen as a “pariah” in the civilised world. After he came to power in October, there were anxieties among civil society organisations, democracy and human rights activists that the former army general will soon act as an autocratic leader because his ruling coalition controls more than 80% of seats in the House of Representatives.
Prabowo is very enthusiastic about the return of Trump, as reflected by his happiness after telephoning Trump just a few days after the Nov 5 elections in the US. He reportedly wants to meet with Trump as soon as possible. He is now preparing to send his personally trusted aide as an Indonesian ambassador to DC.
On his official Instagram, the President congratulated his US counterpart on the latter’s inauguration.
“Indonesia remains committed to working closely with the US and to reinforce our long-standing strategic cooperation for the mutual benefit of our two nations,” said Prabowo.
In an apparent rebuke against persistent support of Indonesia for the struggle of Palestinians against Israel, an unnamed official at the Trump transition team told New York-based NBC News that the new administration is exploring the idea of temporarily deporting some two million Palestinians for the post-war reconstruction of Gaza, with Indonesia named as a potential host country.
“The Indonesian government has never received any information regarding this matter,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Rolliansyah “Roy” Soemirat said in a statement on Jan 20.
Asean will not likely get serious attention from the Trump administration.
Two members, the Philippines and Thailand, have military pacts with the US.
However, Trump ignored Asean in his first administration after being publicly humiliated during the photo sessions after the summit of Asean leaders and their counterparts, including the US. He was displeased when he found difficulties with the “ Asean way”, where leaders crossed arms and joined hands signifying regional unity.
Asean’s economy does not depend much on the US, although its total exports are still crucial. They have learned from Trump’s first government. They have many problems with China, but economically, they are dependent.
The regional grouping also realises they can no longer count on Trump as their security umbrella against the Chinese military’s increasing aggression in the South China Sea. But it does not mean there is no threat from the US.
It will be very hard for Indonesia to avoid economic sanctions by increasing import tariffs or other trade barriers. However, it will not be easy for Trump to demand big favours from the Prabowo administration due to preferred visa restrictions.
Trump will soon realise that the world is much more prepared to retaliate against his actions. And the US allies and foes are also in a much better position with or without the US. — The Jakarta Post/ANN
Kornelius Purba is a senior editor at The Jakarta Post.
