PETALING JAYA: Malaysia could see relief from the haze as the northeast monsoon sets in, but weather experts warn that the reprieve may be followed by hotter and drier conditions under the influence of El Nino.
According to Universiti Malaya meteorologist Prof Emeritus Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah, Malaysia is nearing the end of the current haze episode.
He said the reprieve could last from November until July next year, before the haze possibly returns due to slash and burn activities as well as the southwest monsoon.
“The severity depends on whether La Nina conditions emerge or it remains neutral in the middle of next year.
“However, it will not be as bad as this year,” he said.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Prof Emeritus Fredolin Tangang said the change in wind direction and increased rainfall during the northeast monsoon could help clear the haze.
“Areas such as southern Sumatra and Kalimantan typically receive more rainfall during this period, which helps extinguish peatland fires,” he said.
The haze began in August, with an emergency declared in Serian, Sarawak, in September after the Air Pollutant Index reading reached 521.
However, both Fredolin and Azizan warned that El Nino could bring drier conditions to parts of the country towards the end of the year and early next year.
Fredolin said northern Sarawak and Sabah could be affected.
“Dry conditions and drought are likely during extreme El Nino conditions in these regions.”
Azizan said that while rainfall still occurred during the northeast monsoon in previous El Nino episodes, it was generally shorter in duration and less intense than the prolonged downpours typically associated with major flooding along the peninsula’s east coast.
“Rainfall is generally 10% to 20% below normal during El Nino.”
Azizan also cautioned that water levels should be closely monitored ahead of January and April next year.
He said this was particularly important for states in the northern peninsula, where dam water levels had reportedly fallen to critical and warning levels amid hot and dry conditions.
The northeast monsoon is forecast to begin tomorrow and last until March next year.
The Malaysian Meteorological Department has forecast three to five episodes of heavy rain during this period.
It also said rainfall was expected to decrease towards the end of the monsoon in the northern states of the peninsula and Sabah.
The department added that these conditions could lead to hot and dry weather, potentially triggering extreme heatwaves under the influence of a Super El Nino.
