KOTA KINABALU: In Sabah’s east coast, an intense fray remains on the ground for 23 state seats as three major parties lock horns to gain support among the politically splintered voters.
As polling approaches in less than five days, GRS, along with opposition parties Warisan and Barisan Nasional, are ramping up efforts in all 23 constituencies, seen as a key battleground among the 73 seats.
Up till the 2018 general election, the east coast was a bastion for Barisan’s Umno, but its sphere of influence crumbled with the emergence of Warisan led by Semporna warlord Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal.
Barisan’s influence waned further with the defections of senior leaders led by Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor, who joined Bersatu in 2019 before leaving to form local-based Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (PGRS) in 2023, which now leads the GRS-Pakatan Harapan state coalition.
Political observers see Warisan retaining its strong dominance in the seven state seats within Semporna and Lahad Datu.
But, there is going to be a strong tug for votes with GRS and Barisan for the remaining 16 seats in the east coast that include predominantly Muslim-bumiputra mixed-urban, semi-urban and rural seats.
In the 2020 state election, Barisan cooperated with GRS (then under Perikatan-Bersatu), which saw it picking up nine seats, while Warisan, with its then partner Pakatan, winning 14 seats.
However, observers see a three-way split in support for the seats, with Barisan going head-to-head with GRS and Warisan in their once traditional support bases.
Sabah Barisan led by Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin remains dominant in the Kinabatangan seats of Lamag and Sukau, as well as neighbouring Libaran seats of Sungai Manila, Sungai Sibuga and Gum Gum in neighbouring Batu Sapi.
GRS is holding firm in the Tawau seat of Apas and Kinabatangan’s Kuamut as well as the neighbouring Sugut seat in Beluran.
Many local political pundits expect Warisan to face stiff contests in its Lahad Datu stronghold, while it will be a close fight between the three giants in at least 11 seats on the east coast.
According to observers, the fight is boiling down to Barisan’s bid to reclaim relevance, GRS’ push for continuity, Warisan’s struggle for local autonomy and newcomer Pakatan leveraging federal push for development promises.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali said Warisan has a strong grip in the east coast Muslim majority seats of Tungku, Segama, Silam, Kunak, Sulabayan, Senallang and Bugaya.
“Basically, Warisan’s influence is very strong in these areas. The party might be expected to hold the state seats in the Lahad Datu and Semporna parliamentary constituency. Shafie’s influence and his ethnicity as a Bajau are winning factors.
“Senallang, Sulabayan and Bugaya are safe areas for Warisan,” he added.
He said Barisan might be able to snatch Kunak won by Warisan by a slim majority in the 2020 state polls, but it might be challenged in Tungku and Silam, whose incumbents hail from Warisan.
He said the methodology of his projection was derived from focus group discussions, surveys and assessment of these seats in Sabah.
“Sabah is huge, so the process of collecting data was difficult and took a long time,” he said.
He added that GRS was expected to face a tough challenge on the east coast due to strong challenges by Barisan and Warisan.
Universiti Malaysia Sabah’s Dr Romzi Ationg said the tight multi-cornered fights did not assure any coalition and parties of their traditional dominance in the east coast.
“Many of these east coast Sabah seats are shaping up as tight multi-cornered battles, but it’s not just Barisan vs Warisan, as GRS, Pakatan’s PKR and others all have serious stakes,” said Romzi.
Political scientist Prof Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University said Warisan commanded near absolute support among the east coast Bajau, while PGRS was popular among the Bajau Samahs.
“Together with the catch-all Umno, they compete to win support of all the smaller groups, which often lean to one party over the others, depending on the local candidates fielded.
“More than half of the seats in Sabah are Muslim-majority and not limited to the east coast. It is by and large the fight between Umno and its two splinters, Warisan and PGRS,” he said.
Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research senior fellow Prof Dr Azmi Hassan said the distinction between Muslim-majority and non-Muslim majority seats in Sabah was not as clear as the political dynamics in the peninsula.
The political mood in Sabah is very fluid and the outcome harder to predict than in the peninsula.
He said that in previous polls, Barisan and Umno were dominant in the east coast of Sabah.
“I think it is a fight between Umno and also Warisan,” he added.
Azmi said Umno still had some influence in the west coast and this had made campaigning easier in the east coast.
“But it is very difficult and dangerous to predict these seats, as voting patterns are tied to ethnicity, whether or not they are bumiputra,” he added.
The Muslim bumiputra group comprises ethnic groups such as the Bajau, Orang Sungai, Suluk, Brunei and Kedayan.
Warisan is contesting all 73 seats, GRS is taking on 55 seats, Pakatan (22), Barisan (45), Perikatan (41), Sabah STAR (40), KDM (40) and Upko (25). They are among the 23 parties contesting with 596 candidates involved.
Early voting will take place tomorrow, with polling on Saturday.
