PETALING JAYA: Sabahans are not easily swayed by big names and tend to focus instead on individual track record, visibility on the ground and ability to address local issues.
However, with a huge number of candidates, they could well opt for coalitions with stronger machinery and networks, say experts.
With 596 candidates vying for 73 seats, including several 13- and 14-cornered contests, they said the 17th Sabah state election could be the most fragmented in decades.
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Voter behaviour in the state has increasingly shifted away from party branding and towards individual credibility, said Universiti Malaysia Sabah political analyst Prof Dr Romzi Ationg.
“Sabah voters are not focused on race or religion; those are not decisive factors.
“What matters is whether the candidate has been present, engaged and capable of delivering solutions,” he said.
However, Sabah UiTM senior lecturer Tony Paridi Bagang said while this personality-centric trend is real, election outcomes in multi-cornered races do not always reflect voter sentiment.
This year’s election will also see many multi-cornered contests.
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Tulid recorded a 14-cornered contest, while Inanam, Tamparuli, Bandau and Kapayan each have 13 candidates entering the race.
“Traditionally, vote-splitting tends to benefit larger coalitions,” he said, adding that parties with solid machinery and grassroots reach usually benefit when votes scatter.
Demographics are also expected to play a significant role.
According to the Election Commission, 43% of Sabah’s electorate is below 40, while 54% is below 50, making the state one of the youngest voting populations in the country.
This youth-heavy profile makes development, jobs and delivery issues pivotal, said Romzi.
Younger voters are more likely to support candidates who have proven their competency and engagement on the ground, regardless of party.
“Young voters are looking at the potential of the individual candidate, not the party they represent,” he said.
Tony agreed that youth sentiment carries weight but stressed that its influence is not a given.
“It depends on the younger people’s political literacy, awareness and confidence in the candidates.”
Ethnic dynamics also remain relevant, they said.
While Sabah’s ethnic dynamics are less rigid than in the peninsula, Tony said intra-ethnic competition is sharper this time, with several seats seeing multiple contenders from similar backgrounds.
Political pundits also expect the longstanding Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63) and the state’s 40% revenue entitlement to continue surfacing throughout the campaign period.
Despite Putrajaya’s decision not to appeal the High Court ruling – it is only appealing the grounds of judgment – they said the issue remains politically potent.
Romzi said many continue to exploit ambiguities in public communication, particularly with the Attorney-General’s request for the written judgment.
Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub of Universiti Malaya said it should not be surprising if voters ultimately gravitate towards the major coalitions.
He said this is driven by their experience in governing and the perception that big pacts are better able to field the right candidates.
“Although many candidates are contesting in each constituency, choosing major coalitions is unsurprising because it has long been a norm in Sabah’s political culture,” he said.
Several constituencies have been flagged as hot seats to watch.
These include Usukan, featuring a clash between heavyweight figures; Matunggong, where Datuk Julita Majungki faces Datuk Wetrom Bahanda; Tamparuli, which has a mix of established names and outsiders; Moyog, with a 12-cornered contest; Sindumin, where PKR is fielding the eldest son of the Yang di-Pertua Negeri of Sabah Tun Musa Aman; and Kundasang, where incumbent Datuk Seri Dr Joachim Gunsalam reportedly faces pressure over the emergence of viable challengers.
