PETALING JAYA: The “green wave” that swept through the country during the 15th General Election (GE15) last November is here to stay for the state polls, especially in the Malay belt states, say pundits.
However, some analysts believe the PAS-led green wave’s strength may be weaker this time.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Azmil Tayeb said the green wave supported by Opposition bloc Perikatan Nasional will persist in Malay-majority areas.
“Many Umno voters and young Malay voters will stick to Perikatan, like in the general election,” he said.
Political pundit Dr Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar, from International Islamic University Malaysia, said the state elections will provide a hint about whether the wave is here to stay.
“From the looks of it, it is still strong in the Malay belt.
“It could also make its presence felt in the Malay-majority seats in Penang and Selangor,” he said, referring to the Pakatan Harapan “crown jewel” states.
However, as Kedah and Terengganu have experienced changes in government in the last decade or so, some inroads by Pakatan-Barisan Nasional and upsets in the two states cannot be ruled out either, he added.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan believes that the green wave will be much more limited this time, although he expects it to remain strong in Perikatan-led Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.
He, however, felt it will be an uphill task for the green wave to sweep through the Pakatan-led Penang, Negri Sembilan and Selangor.
“For the Pakatan states, I presume the green wave will only occur in areas where the majority of the voters, 70% and above, are Malays,” he said.
Undi18 co-founder and advocacy director Tharma Pillai downplayed the magnitude of the green wave.
“I do not believe there was a green wave in the general election.
“Essentially, the majority of young voters voted for Pakatan and Barisan.
“Almost 60% voted for Pakatan-Barisan, about 37% voted for Perikatan,” he said.
“However, as we understand the green wave, it represents a shift towards Islamisation and conservatism. I don’t believe this is the case.
“Based on polls, what is clear is that many conservative Malay-Muslim voters who would have voted for Umno opted to vote for Perikatan due to certain leadership factors,” he said.
He also noted that Perikatan chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin is seen as more popular than Barisan chairman and Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi due to “integrity factors”.
During GE15, what came to be called the green wave swept through Perlis with Perikatan taking all three parliamentary seats there, besides capturing 14 out of the 15 seats in Kedah, and winning all seats in its bastions of Kelantan and Terengganu.
