Sanusi, high prices give Perikatan an edge in Kedah

PETALING JAYA: Pakatan Harapan and its ally Barisan Nasional may see Kedah as a “swing state” but Perikatan Nasional still holds the upper hand there, say party officials and analysts.

Pakatan has officially said it needs a 10% swing from the over 1.5 million voters in the state to capture a majority in the 36-seat assembly.

However, many within Pakatan and Barisan in the state concede that the target is a tall order.

There are two main factors – the rising inflation that is being blamed on the Federal Government and the popularity of Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor.

Political scientist Dr Azmil Tayeb, who published a paper on the voting trends in Kedah after the 15th General Election, said that although Kedah remains “competitive”, Perikatan remained dominant in Malay-majority seats. Of the 36 state seats, 31 have a Malay majority.

However, even non-Muslim voters in areas like Kulim-Bandar Baru, Padang Serai and Alor Star tend to support Perikatan, which has ruled Kedah since May 2020.

“Overall, the prospects look bleak for Pakatan-Barisan in Kedah,” Azmil wrote in his study that was published by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

Azmil, of Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), said the study’s findings are still relevant before the state polls on Aug 12.

“Even in areas where there are big ethnic minority groups, Perikatan will be a frontrunner, considering how well it did in parliamentary constituencies such as Alor Setar (during GE15).

“Even if PH and BN combine forces in these mixed areas, PN still poses a formidable challenge,” Azmil said.

Perikatan now holds 23 seats in the assembly while the rest are divided among Pakatan parties, PKR, DAP and Amanah.

Despite only gaining control of Kedah through defections after the Sheraton move in February 2020, Perikatan parties PAS and Bersatu managed to make sweeping gains in GE15.

From having just five of the 15 parliamentary seats after GE14, Perikatan swept all but one seat in GE15.

Umno, Amanah and PKR even lost their long-held bastions such as Padang Terap, Baling, Pokok Sena, Padang Serai and Alor Star.

The last eight months may have changed things somewhat. With the Pakatan-Barisan unity government in Putrajaya and better coordination between the two former rivals, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim announced in early July that Kedah could switch hands.

Kedah Pakatan chairman Datuk Mahfuz Omar felt this could be achieved by combining the support of Pakatan and Barisan and getting a 10% swing from voters who supported Perikatan in GE15.

However, a Kedah BN official said a recent survey of voters found that sentiment towards the Federal Government was still largely negative.

“Most Malays still support Perikatan because of family ties to many who crossed over from Umno. The other reason is the high cost of living,” said the official who requested anonymity.

A Kedah Pakatan source admitted that the coalition does not have a personality to rival Sanusi, who has become popular with his homely, brash but controversial persona.

“Sanusi may look problematic to those in the Klang Valley but he has endeared himself to Kedahans because he is seen as outspoken and he speaks their language,” said the Kedah Pakatan official.

Kedah PAS commissioner Datuk Ahmad Yahya also disputed the claim that Kedah could swing to Pakatan and Barisan, saying the Perikatan administration has racked up notable achievements.

“Our economy has grown with the RM91bil investments we have managed to bring in to Kedah. This has created thousands of new jobs for our youth,” said Ahmad, who is also Pokok Sena MP.

“People can see the difference between what we can do and the track record of the unity government where the ringgit has fallen so low,” said Ahmad.