KOTA KINABALU: In alphabet soup Sabah politics, there will be a lot of trouble stirred up as Malaysia goes into the 15th General Election (GE15).
The state’s Barisan Nasional and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) are set to work as one team against a fractured opposition front of Parti Warisan and its former allies, Pakatan Harapan.
The irony of it all is that what happens in Sabah is in sharp contrast with federal politics.
While Umno and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) are at loggerheads in Kuala Lumpur, they are together in the Barisan-GRS partnership, with Bersatu’s Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor as Chief Minister and Umno’s Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin as his deputy.
Also in the race will be a potpourri of political parties led by prominent former leaders whose political allegiance could shift towards the BN-GRS partnership in the run-up to the nominations and elections.
The first test for the GRS-Barisan grouping is whether all nine component parties will agree to the seat-sharing formula for the 25 parliamentary seats, a prickly issue.
The five-party GRS is led by Hajiji, the Bersatu Sabah chapter chairman. The other four parties are Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) led by Datuk Seri Dr Maximus Ongkili, Sabah STAR led by Datuk Dr Jeffrey Kitingan, Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) led by Datuk Yong Teck Lee and Usno led by Tan Sri Pandikar Amin.
On the other hand is the four-party state Barisan led by Bung Moktar, who is Sabah Umno chairman.
The other three state Barisan component parties are Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS) led by Tan Sri Joseph Kurup, MCA and MIC.
Political observers see both Hajiji and Bung being able to work out a seat-sharing formula between the two coalitions, but it might not go down well with their respective component parties.
The test will be how the two calm restive leaders and members of their respective parties, as well as how the coalition partners, respond.
It will be necessary to strike the seat distribution deal to ensure that upset parties do not decide to contest seats on their own ticket, like what happened in the September 2020 snap state polls where GRS-Barisan aligned parties fielded candidates or backed independents against the official GRS-Barisan line-up.
The loose coalition of parties under GRS-Barisan as well as the independents managed to unseat the Warisan-Pakatan Harapan-Upko-led state government of Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal.
Observers note that Hajiji and Bung have managed to strengthen the GRS-Barisan partnership over the last two years but are still threatened by Warisan in their Muslim native strongholds, especially on the east coast of Sabah.
Political experts say that Hajiji’s biggest challenge will be to explain to voters why he supports Bersatu, which is part of the national coalition led by Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and is the sworn enemy of Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s Barisan.
Sabah Bersatu, together with Sabah STAR and SAPP, is packaging themselves as local parties under GRS and will contest under the GRS symbol, while Barisan will contest under its own “dacing” symbol.
Observers say that although it is clear Barisan and Ahmad Zahid have no problems with the GRS-Barisan partnership, Muhyiddin and Perikatan might be uneasy with the arrangement. After all, they are out to topple Umno-Barisan.
Warisan, once an ally of Pakatan that toppled the Barisan government in 2018, has gone solo and on the war path against Pakatan, whose strength in Sabah remains with DAP.
Observers say it remains to be seen if Warisan and Pakatan can patch up ahead of the polls, although this seems unlikely.
Noting that Shafie was ready to work with local parties, especially PBS at the state level, observers say that last-minute deals could still be clinched with parties breaking away from the GRS-Barisan partnership.
Also expected in the race are Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM) led by Datuk Peter Anthony (a former Warisan vice-president), Parti Cinta Sabah (PCS) led by ex-Umno man and former foreign minister Datuk Seri Anifah Aman, Parti Harapan Rakyat Sabah (Harapan Rakyat) led by Tan Sri Liew Yun Fah and the Liberal Democratic Party led by Datuk Chin Su Phin.
All these parties have applied to join GRS but have yet to be accepted.
As of yesterday’s dissolution, GRS has eight MPs (Bersatu-six, PBS-one, Sabah STAR-one) while Barisan has three MPs (Umno-two and PBRS-one) with Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM) holding one seat.
The opposition side holds 12 seats, with Warisan having six MPs, DAP three, PKR two and Upko one.
The Batu Sapi seat has been vacant since the death of its Warisan incumbent Datuk VK Liew in October 2020.
In Sabah politics, the only certainty is that everything is uncertain. Friends today can be foes tomorrow, and vice-versa. Deals can also be brokered and broken at any time.
