Will Barisan get a second chance?

Reports by WANI MUTHIAH , JO TIMBOUNG, JOSEPH KAOS Jr, CLARISSA CHUNG and R. SEKARAN 

KLANG: A win for Barisan Nasional in Semenyih today means the people are willing to give the former ruling coalition a second chance and warning Pakatan Harapan that it may be in for a tough ride in the next general election.

However, up till the last day of cam­paigning, nobody is able to pinpoint the degree of response both divides will receive.

Although the battle in this by-election is between four candidates, the real fight is between Pakatan’s Muhammad Aiman Zainali, 30, and Barisan’s Zakaria Hanafi, 56, while Parti Sosialis Malaysia’s Nik Aziz Afiq Abdul, 25, and independent candidate Kuan Chee Heng, 56, are expected to lose their deposits.

PAS is throwing its support behind the Barisan candidate.

The seat became vacant after the sudden death of Pakatan’s Bakhtiar Mohd Nor, 57, who was from Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), on Jan 11.

Some observers say following Barisan’s recent victory in the Cameron Highlands by-election, it has a good chance of sailing through again this time.

But comparing the two by-elections is akin to pitting durian against oranges.

Cameron Highlands is in Pahang, which is still under Barisan control, while Semenyih is in Selangor, which has been under Pakatan administration since 2008.

Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Muhammad Asri Mohd Ali said another glaring factor was that the fight in Cameron Highlands was between Malay and non-Malay candidates while in Semenyih it was a battle royal between Malays who make up 70% of the electorate.

“In Cameron Highlands, Malay voters were not divided while in Semenyih, the Malays have to choose,” he said.

Dr Muhammad Asri believed Pakatan is at a disadvantage in Semenyih.

“The Pakatan candidate does not have the wow factor.

“He also said the wrong things such as that the constituency’s problems would be settled a day after he wins the polls.

“This will only remind the voters of Pakatan’s GE14 pledges that are yet to be fulfilled,” he added.

Dr Muhammad Asri noted that Semenyih is home to a well-educated middle class electorate, of whom most are civil servants.

Given this, the Pakatan government’s plans to shrink the civil service may also throw a spanner in the works.

One must also not forget that Semenyih only fell to Pakatan in the last general election in spite of Pakatan winning the state in 2008.

Barisan had managed to retain the state seat in the 2008 and 2013 general elections.

The incumbent Datuk Johan Abdul Aziz fell in last year’s election with 14,464 votes as opposed to PAS’ Mad Shahmidur Mat Kosim’s 6,966 votes, Arutchelvan’s 1,293 votes and the late Bakhtiar’s 23,428 votes.

Selangor Bersatu chairman Datuk Abdul Rashid Asari, however, felt that the current spate of scandals engulfing top PAS leaders, which saw the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission seizing luxury vehicles as well as freezing bank accounts, would make its mark in today’s polls.

“The people of Semenyih are good, well-educated people who know what is right and wrong,” he said.

This is the fourth by-election in Selangor following Sungai Kandis, Balakong and Seri Setia.

Selangor Umno deputy chief Datuk Mat Nadzari Ahmad Dahlan said many who had voted for Pak­atan voiced their disappointment over the unmet election promises.

Asked if PAS’ alleged financial scandal and the party president’s purported payoff to Sarawak Report’s Clare Rewcastle Brown would affect Barisan’s chances, Mat Nadzari said he did not see the connection because PAS had only targeted its grassroots members and those who had voted for its candidate last round.

Selangor PAS election director Roslan Shahir said the PAS grassroots members would not be swayed by any propaganda levelled against their leaders and expected PAS’ votes to go to Barisan.