EPIDEMIOLOGISTS attempt to model quantitatively the course of an infectious outbreak by plotting the number of cases over time in a curve-fitting exercise whose shape reflects parameter values like the reproductive number (average number of secondary infections produced by a typical existing infection) and incubation period (duration between exposure to an infectious organism and the emergence of noticeable symptoms).
Such exercises have been undertaken by researchers at the University of Hong Kong, Imperial College (London) and National University of Singapore, among others.
