Expect heat, floods and haze with El Nino threat
PETALING JAYA: Certain parts of the country should brace for temperatures potentially exceeding 40°C in the coming months as El Nino intensifies, bringing higher heat and drier conditions, experts say.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) climatologist Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang said the weather phenomenon is expected to peak at the end of this year before weakening early next year.
“The phenomenon was forecast to develop into an extreme El Nino, potentially stronger than the 1997/98 and 2015/16 episodes.
“Owing to global warming and current warming trends, the world is likely to experience much hotter conditions, and this year or next year could be among the warmest years on record,” he said.
Although Malaysia has yet to experience constant temperatures above 37°C or prolonged heatwaves, he said the risk would likely increase in the coming months, which could push temperatures above 40°C due to El Nino.
However, he noted that the country has been experiencing increased rainfall in June and July, which was due to the influence of El Nino over Sumatra and southern Peninsular Malaysia.
He cautioned that El Nino could still contribute to extreme weather, including intense rainfall and flooding in some regions.
Southern Sumatra, western Kalimantan and southern Sarawak could experience wetter conditions and risks of flooding later in the year, he said.
He added that northern Sarawak and Sabah could face drier conditions, raising the risk of forest fires and haze.
Prolonged heat and drier conditions could also affect water resources, agricultural production, food security and public health, he noted.
Universiti Malaya meteorologist Emeritus Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah said stronger El Nino conditions could suppress convection and reduce cloud formation, allowing more solar radiation to reach the surface and push temperatures higher.
He added that El Nino was also expected to peak towards the end of the year, coinciding with the northeast monsoon.
“Rainfall could be 10% to 20% lower between October and December along the east coast, while Sabah and Sarawak could see reduced rainfall between January and February,” he said.
He cautioned that northern Peninsular Malaysia could experience temperatures between 37°C and 40°C in February and March.
He also urged authorities to conserve water in dams now to ensure sufficient supplies for domestic use when evaporation increases between February and April.
