Analysts: Negri election seen as stress test for the federal coalition
PETALING JAYA: The Negri Sembilan election will offer insights into the dynamics of the unity government arrangement, with Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional competing for control of the state while continuing their cooperation at the federal level, political analysts say.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the state polls should be viewed less as a referendum and more as a “stress test” of the federal coalition.
“If Barisan and Pakatan can compete without damaging their federal partnership and continue cooperating after the polls, the arrangement will have proved its resilience,” he said.
He said while Barisan and Pakatan had formed the Negri Sembilan government after securing a combined 31 of the state’s 36 seats in 2023, in this election, they are competing for control of the state.
“The election will show whether the two coalitions can remain partners at the federal level while contesting as rivals at the state,” he said yesterday.
Barisan announced 25 candidates, including three women, for the state’s 36 seats. They comprised 16 from Umno, seven from MCA and two from MIC.
The coalition is retaining most incumbents, with only three new Umno faces introduced. They are Mohamad Qayyum Abd Jalil (Senaling), Siti Nur Umaira Hasim (Labu) and S. Leza Md Yasin (Pilah).
Negri Sembilan Barisan chairman Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan and state Umno liaison chief Datuk Seri Jalaluddin Alias will defend their respective seats of Rantau and Pertang.
Mohamad said earlier the coalition was contesting only 25 seats after reaching an electoral understanding with other parties.
Pakatan is contesting all 36 seats – 16 from PKR, 11 from DAP and nine from Amanah. They include four women.
However, Mohammad Tawfik said voters are unlikely to judge the election solely on the unity government arrangement.
“The people will look closely into the track record of caretaker Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun. They will also look at Barisan’s momentum after Johor, candidate quality, local development issues and bread-and-butter concerns.
“The outcome cannot be viewed simply as an endorsement or rejection of the unity government,” he added.
Aminuddin, who is also a PKR vice-president, will be contesting in Linggi.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan said one of the biggest surprises from Barisan’s announcement was that the coalition is contesting only 25 seats.
Azmi said the choice of a ‘poster boy’ candidate would likely only become clearer later.
He expects Mohamad, known as Tok Mat, to remain a key figure for Barisan, given that he had been widely viewed as the intended Mentri Besar candidate after the 2023 election.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political sociologist Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said in terms of candidate selection, both Barisan and Pakatan had opted for continuity over sweeping changes.
He added that Barisan has given priority to experienced candidates with strong local roots, while Pakatan sought to balance continuity with renewal by fielding a mix of incumbents and younger faces.
“Both coalitions are signalling stability rather than major experimentation,” he said.
Meanwhile, DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke said Pakatan is unfazed by reports of electoral cooperation between Barisan and Perikatan, saying that Pakatan will focus on winning all 36 seats it is contesting.
