PETALING JAYA: The road to a stronger Barisan Nasional majority in Johor runs through the Felda settlements – and the results there will be the clearest signal yet of rural Malay sentiment heading into the next general elections, say analysts.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan expects Barisan to return as the state government with a stronger two-thirds majority of more than 40 seats – but only if it holds the land schemes.
“Maybe Barisan can capture an extra three or four seats, but this includes a very important criterion – they must capture the Felda settlement seats,” he said.
He still regards the settlements as Barisan’s “fixed deposit”, pointing to the Sembrong parliamentary constituency, which takes in six settlements across the Paloh and Kahang state seats.
“Why Sembrong? Because Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein is very popular here and also in the settlements there.”
Settlers, he said, have traditionally credited Barisan with the success of the settlements, which grew out of the plans of the former Barisan government under second prime minister Tun Abdul Razak Hussein.
“The Felda settlements are basically the idea of the former Barisan government. So the federal government cannot use this scenario to claim credit for the settlements,” he said.
Azmi also brushed aside the possibility that Bersatu would tell its supporters to back Pakatan Harapan out of spite over its strained ties with PAS.
“I don’t think the transfer of Bersatu votes to Pakatan will make any difference because Bersatu’s influence in Johor is very minimal,” he said.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Prof Dr Mazlan Ali said PAS supporters are likely to heed the leadership call to back Umno, while Bersatu members may protest by voting Pakatan or staying home.
Mazlan said the Felda settlements remain Umno strongholds, anchored by community structures built by Umno since Felda’s founding, with the first generation aged 76 and above and the second, in their 50s, still firmly behind the party.
But, Mazlan said, the third generation, those 35 years old and younger, will vote differently.
“Most of them, including 35% of the second generation, live outside, such as in the Klang Valley, and when they go back to vote, they will vote for parties other than Umno.
“In some places, these Felda areas have been successfully penetrated by Pakatan or Perikatan,” he said.
Mazlan said Felda settlements in Segamat and several in the Johor Baru district remain the campaign focus, with second-generation housing, cost management between settlers and Felda, and welfare among the issues that could sway the July 11 vote.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political sociologist Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian cautioned against describing Felda votes as Barisan’s fixed deposit.
The Felda vote will have to be earned, with settler loyalty since the 2018 general election better understood as conditional rather than unconditional, said Sivamurugan.
“Voters are increasingly evaluating governments based on economic delivery, commodity prices, cost of living, and how effectively Felda-related issues are addressed.”
Younger settlers, he said, are swayed more by jobs, living costs, housing and national leadership than by loyalty to any one party – making turnout crucial.
“A higher turnout could reinforce established voting patterns, while a lower turnout among younger voters may disproportionately benefit parties with stronger local mobilisation.”
Beyond deciding the state government, Sivamurugan said the settlements will serve as a barometer of Malay political sentiment for the general election.
A strong Barisan showing would suggest rural Malay voters are comfortable with the unity government formula and that its traditional base remains resilient heading into the 16th General Election (GE16), he said.
“Conversely, if the results are mixed or Barisan underperforms in Felda areas, it would indicate that Malay support remains competitive rather than consolidated,” he said.
“The Felda vote in Johor is an important indicator of the direction of Malay political sentiment, but not a definitive predictor of GE16.
“National issues, economic conditions, candidate quality, and coalition dynamics will continue to shape voter behaviour between now and the general election.”
Johor will go to the polls this Saturday.
