A host of new parties are joining the fray, with almost 600 nomination papers sold.
From the look of things, this is a battle between Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan. The third block, Perikatan Nasional, could still be facing an internal feud, as their coalition could only come up with candidates for 33 seats out of the 56 seats it contested in the past.
Even their coalition partner Gerakan, which contested eight seats in 2022, has decided to sit out this time around.
But there are major spoilers in the mix – including Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli’s Parti Bersama Malaysia, which plans to contest 15 seats, while Malaysian Indian Progressive Party (MIPP) under Perikatan will be making its election debut by contesting five seats.
Two parties which suffered defeats in the past have decided to scale down this time around.
Muda, which contested seven seats and won one in 2022, has now scaled down to four seats, while Parti Pejuang Tanahair (Pejuang), which contested 42 seats in 2022, is contesting only in Gambir.
Parti Sosialis Malaysia is expected to again contest one seat, while two parties which previously contested in Johor and lost, including Parti Warisan Sabah and Parti Bangsa Malaysia, are expected to sit out this time.
A total of 61 people have purchased forms to stand as independents, and a new party known as Parti Orang Asli (ASLI) is expected to join the fray.
Although this time there are fewer parties and candidates, anything could still happen.
Johor had always been regarded as Barisan’s “fixed deposit” state before the 14th General Election (GE14), when the Opposition chalked up a shock victory, taking control with a two-thirds majority in 2018.
However, Pakatan’s hold on the state lasted just 22 months before Umno wrested back power.
The Umno-led Barisan, which has a comfortable two-thirds majority with 40 seats in the house, is hoping that this time around they will be able to hold on to the same numbers or even claw back a few from the opposition.
Unlike past elections, which usually saw straight fights between Barisan, Pakatan or Perikatan, there are 13 political parties involved and there is no telling who is standing where.
Many of the parties are trying to showcase “young and fresh” faces, with Barisan fielding at least 13 candidates who are less than 40 years old, Pakatan 17 candidates and Perikatan eight.
This election will also see the Undi18 law and automatic registration.
The state’s voter list has now increased by more than 130,000 voters from 2022 to 2.72 million this time around, with 53.87% Malays, 35.97% Chinese, 7.18% Indians and 2.99% others.
All the opposition parties are banking on a high turnout of 65% to 75% this time around from the 54% achieved in 2022.
Johor has always had a high voter turnout in the past, but in 2022 turnout was at an all-time low as it was hld during the Covid-19 lockdown and pandemic.
The opposition will go all out to get over 100,000 voters working in Singapore to return to vote, especially in the seats in the south of the state presently held by Pakatan.
Barisan is banking on its core supporters, especially from the 73 Felda settlements state-wide, to help deliver the votes in at least 30 seats.
While the opposition, mainly Pakatan, is banking on at least 25 to 30 mostly mixed seats, to be able to return to power.
Observers are expecting the fight in the birthplace of Umno to be intense, but what is certain is that the truth will only be known on polling day, July 11.
