PETALING JAYA: Nomination day for the Johor election is expected to throw up a flurry of last-minute surprises, with candidate swaps and a surge in multi-cornered contests poised to reshape the electoral landscape.
The polls are expected to be highly competitive, with multi-cornered fights anticipated in 42 of the 56 state seats.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said there remains room for last-minute surprises, particularly in closely watched constituencies such as Rengit.
“The bigger question is whether parties can avoid unnecessary multi-cornered contests, as these could ultimately shape the outcome more than the individual candidates themselves,” he said.
His remarks came amid Rengit assemblyman Datuk Dr Mohd Puad Zarkashi’s exit from Umno after claiming external interference in the state’s political affairs.
Prof Sivamurugan said multi-cornered contests were likely in constituencies where major coalitions, smaller parties and independents believe they have a realistic chance of winning.
“While this broadens voter choice, it also risks splitting votes, making outcomes less predictable and allowing candidates to win with a smaller share of the popular vote,” he said.
Analyst Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani also foresees some surprises today.
“With Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan expected to field full slates across Johor’s 56 seats, three-cornered contests are now the baseline rather than the exception.
“The figure to watch is how many seats spill into four or five-way fights once smaller parties and independents file their papers, because that is where vote fragmentation becomes less predictable,” he said.
Based on candidate announcements so far, Barisan, Pakatan and Perikatan are set for three-cornered contests in 33 seats, while Barisan and Pakatan are expected to face off directly in 14 constituencies.
Several seats have already emerged as key battlegrounds, including Machap, Puteri Wangsa, Skudai and Endau.
Caretaker Mentri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi will defend Machap for Barisan, while Pakatan’s Dr Maszlee Malik, a former minister and Simpang Renggam MP, is contesting Puteri Wangsa, a seat won by Muda in the 2022 Johor election.
The seat had been allocated to Muda when the party was part of Pakatan.
Skudai is shaping up to be the most crowded contest, with a five-cornered fight expected.
Parti Bersama Malaysia, led by former PKR leaders Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, is making its electoral debut and plans to contest 15 seats.
Muda is seeking to contest four seats, while Parti Sosialis Malaysia is targeting Skudai.
Another candidate to watch is Barisan’s Alwiyah Talib, who recently rejoined Umno and is seeking to defend Endau.
Alwiyah won the seat on a Barisan ticket in 2022 before defecting to Bersatu and later returning to Umno.
Former Layang-Layang assemblyman Abdul Mutalip Abd Rahim, also had quit Umno and joined Bersatu, marking another political realignment in Johor.
Socio-political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the main contest was still likely to be between Barisan and Pakatan, although smaller parties could influence outcomes in marginal constituencies by fragmenting the vote.
“Multi-cornered contests usually benefit parties with a strong core vote, effective organisation and superior voter mobilisation capacity.
“That may give Barisan an advantage in several constituencies, as Umno possesses an established grassroots network while also leading the incumbent state government,” he said.
International Islamic University Malaysia political sciencist Assoc Prof Dr Syaza Farhana Mohamad Shukri said PAS president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang’s statement that the party would not campaign for Bersatu candidates highlighted the difficulty for its machinery to explain Perikatan’s internal dynamics if its component parties were sharing a logo without genuinely working together.
“Talk of forming the next Johor government does not make much sense if the coalition is contesting only 33 seats,” she said.
Nomination day is today, followed by early voting on July 7, with polling set for July 11.
