PETALING JAYA: Voter turnout in the upcoming Johor and Negri Sembilan state elections is expected to be slightly higher than during the previous polls, say political analysts.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said turnout in both elections was expected to increase compared to the last state polls but would likely remain below the 65% mark.
“The political stakes are higher as both elections are increasingly viewed as indicators of public sentiment towards the unity government and the direction of national politics ahead of GE16,” he said.
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However, he said voter fatigue following years of political developments, elections and shifting political alignments could dampen participation.
“State elections generally attract lower public attention than general elections, as many voters tend to view them as less consequential,” he said.
Tawfik said young voters would remain an important variable following the implementation of Undi18 and automatic voter registration.
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“Since younger voters now form a sizeable electoral bloc, their willingness to engage with political issues and turn out on polling day could have a meaningful impact on overall voter turnout,” he said.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian forecast a modest increase in voter turnout, particularly if voters perceived the contests as highly competitive and carrying wider national political implications.
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“However, voter fatigue and the absence of a strong political wave could limit a significant increase,” he said.
He said many Malaysians working in Singapore and other locations outside their constituencies might think twice about returning home to vote.
“High turnout can benefit parties with broader appeal and effective grassroots mobilisation, while low turnout often favours parties with loyal and disciplined core supporters,” he said.
Meanwhile, senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, Dr Azmi Hassan, said turnout in both states was likely to surpass the previous elections due to issues expected to dominate the campaigns.
In Johor, he said Barisan Nasional’s ambitions to govern the state independently could generate interest among supporters of both the ruling and opposition parties.
“Barisan has stated that they want to control the state government alone.
“I think this will spur the interest not only of Barisan supporters but also of Pakatan Harapan, PAS and Bersatu supporters,” he said.
For Negri Sembilan, Azmi said public perception that the election outcome could influence the future direction of the state’s monarchy could also motivate voters.
In Johor Baru, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali said that among the reasons contributing to the low voter turnout during the previous state election in March 2022 was the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Voters often view state elections as not very significant since they will not change the Federal Government.
“For this coming election, I believe that the turnout will be at least higher than the 54% voter turnout we saw in the previous state election,” he added.
Assoc Prof Mazlan said the turnout could reach up to 70% if the government offered incentives for voters, particularly those living outside Johor, to come back and vote.
“Voter turnout may reach about 65% to 70%, which is high for a state election, as we are seeing the hype surrounding the Johor election that has attracted the attention of many, including outstation voters.
“Such measures may indirectly encourage them to come back to vote, especially if it is accompanied by government incentives such as a special holiday or toll exemption,” he said.
Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Md Akbal Abdullah said a weekend polling day can encourage outstation voters to return and vote.
“I believe we can expect to see a voter turnout of at least 60%, which is considered significant for a state election,” he said.
