JOHOR BARU: The split between PAS and Bersatu is likely to deal a significant blow to both parties in the upcoming Johor state election, with the possibility of them losing all three seats currently held under the Perikatan Nasional banner, says a political analyst.
The decision by PAS to sever ties with Bersatu would weaken both parties’ electoral prospects as they would no longer be able to consolidate the support they previously enjoyed under Perikatan, said Dr Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.
He claimed one of the seats most at risk is the Endau state seat, which was won under the Perikatan ticket in the last state election.
“The seat’s former representative Alwiyah Talib has since returned to Umno and Endau has traditionally been regarded as a Barisan Nasional stronghold,” he said when contacted here yesterday.
Mazlan said PAS incumbent Abdul Aziz Talib in Maharani and former Johor mentri besar Datuk Dr Sahruddin Jamal in Bukit Kepong could also face an uphill battle in retaining their seats.
He said both seats were won with majorities of fewer than 2,000 votes, making them highly vulnerable should the votes be split between PAS and Bersatu.
“I believe PAS and Bersatu will face difficulties not only in Johor, but also in the Negri Sembilan state election if they contest separately.”
Mazlan added direct contests between PAS and Bersatu would inevitably divide the votes that had previously been combined under the Perikatan coalition, reducing their chances of securing victories.
While PAS possesses a stronger and more extensive grassroots machinery than Bersatu, he said the party could struggle to attract fence-sitters and non-Malay voters without the presence of a national figure such as Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.
“Muhyiddin remains an influential political figure who can help garner support from a broader segment of voters.
“PAS also lacks a strong base in Johor compared to its traditional strongholds in the east coast and northern states, which could further hamper its performance in the election.”
Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub of Universiti Malaya said the PAS-Bersatu split comes at a particularly difficult time for Bersatu, especially with the Johor state election approaching.
“In many constituencies, Bersatu’s electoral performance has relied significantly on PAS’ grassroots machinery, which has traditionally played a crucial role in mobilising Malay-Muslim voters and strengthening campaign operations on the ground.”
Without PAS’ organisational support, Mohammad Tawfik said Bersatu is likely to face greater challenges in defending its current seats.
The emergence of the Reset movement, he added, may further complicate the situation by attracting activists, local leaders and voters who are dissatisfied with the current opposition landscape.
Reset is led by former Bersatu deputy president Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin, who was sacked from the party in February.
“Any fragmentation of opposition support is likely to put Bersatu at a disadvantage.”
Mohammad Tawfik also said Bersatu remains heavily dependent on Muhyiddin.
“Despite the presence of other senior leaders, Muhyiddin continues to be the party’s most recognisable and influential name.
“This reliance, however, raises questions about leadership succession and Bersatu’s ability to remain competitive beyond the Muhyiddin era.
“The Johor state election will be a crucial test of Bersatu’s ability to remain electorally competitive without the organisational strength and grassroots support traditionally provided by PAS,” he said.
