PETALING JAYA: Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional may work together in the six state elections due this year, but there is one big obstacle – seat distribution.
The two sides have to iron out this problem carefully to avoid cracks in their federal unity government, say analysts.
“The political turmoil in Sabah is a test of the relationship between the parties under the unity government led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim before the state polls.
“If not managed properly, this problem could spread to the six states and complicate efforts at the state level to form a political cooperation in line with the new federal alignment,” said Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar.
Although the federal leadership has so far remained silent, there are positive indications that Pakatan and Barisan will cooperate at the state level during the polls.
“Leaders on both sides will have to take a stand on whether such cooperation is desirable,” said Council of Professors member Prof Dr Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmod.
“However, I see very strong undercurrents of such cooperation.
“Otherwise, there could be untoward consequences at the federal level if there are break-ups at the state level,” he said.
The six states that will be holding elections are Perikatan Nasional-held Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, and Pakatan Harapan’s Selangor, Penang and Negri Sembilan.
The Kelantan assembly’s five-year term will expire on June 9, Terengganu on Sept 1 and Kedah on Sept 4.
Penang’s term will end on Aug 2, followed by Selangor on Aug 26 and Negri Sembilan on Sept 2.
So far, only the Pakatan state leaderships in Kedah, Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Penang have indicated willingness to work with Barisan for the state elections.
Last Saturday, Pakatan secretary- general Datuk Seri Saifuddin Nasution said the presidential council had yet to discuss such cooperation.
On Wednesday though, Selangor Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari said details on a collaboration in Selangor would be revealed soon.
Universiti Sains Malaysia’s political science expert Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian noted that the intervention by Anwar and Barisan chairman Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi in Sabah indicated that they wanted to see state-level cooperation similar to that of the Federal Government.
But he said seat allocation would be a “sensitive and difficult” test.
In Penang, for instance, Pakatan now holds 33 seats, Barisan has two and the opposition Perikatan Nasional has five. Barisan may want to contest more than seven seats.
In Selangor, Pakatan has 40 seats while Barisan and Perikatan have five each. Others like Pejuang, Warisan and Parti Bangsa Malaysia have six seats each.
Sivamurugan said a breakdown of cooperation between Pakatan and Barisan at the state level would have consequences at the federal level, although there was still time to iron things out.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia political analyst Suffian Mansor said the seat distribution formula could lead to a falling out between Pakatan and Barisan at the grassroots level.
“Party branches will want to defend their traditional seats and will not give them up to other parties,” he said.
Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, said it was imperative for the two coalitions to work together at the state level.
“There is no other way. If Umno and DAP can work together in the Federal Government, I don’t see why they can’t do so at the state level,” he said.
Political analyst Oh Ei Sun said seat distribution could be smoother in the Perikatan-held states.
“In these states, they can be generous with one another as their winning chances are low,” Oh said.
But it would be harder in Selangor, Penang and Negri Sembilan.
“They could fight over seats. Also, their respective warlords may not agree with the seat allocations,” he said.
