Covid-19: Health Ministry projects more than 3,000 daily cases by Hari Raya if SOPs not followed

PETALING JAYA: The Health Ministry projects that Malaysia could have more than 3,000 daily Covid-19 cases by Hari Raya Aidilfitri next month if non-compliance with the standard operating procedures (SOPs) continues.

The end of May would then see about 5,000 daily cases should SOPs continue to be flouted, said the Health Ministry in a chart of its latest forecast posted on Twitter on Friday (April 23) morning.

However, if SOPs are followed, cases could shrink to about 500 infections daily by Hari Raya, which is expected to fall on May 13.

Cases would then peter out to less than 500 daily cases by the end of May should all Malaysians embrace the SOPs.

The “non-compliance of SOPs” scenario assumes that Covid-19 has an effective reproduction number (Rt) of 1.2 while in the “compliance to SOPs” scenario, the Rt is assumed to be 0.8.

The current Rt has actually risen slightly to 1.16 from 1.15 previously as Malaysia continues the trend of clocking in more than 2,000 daily cases while concurrently, the national immunisation programme, which began in February, is running.

An Rt of 1.16 means that for every 100 newly infected persons, they could potentially infect another 116 new persons.

On Thursday (April 22), 2,875 new cases were reported, the most in almost two months, bringing the cumulative number of Covid-19 infections since the outbreak began early last year to 384,688.

Article type: free
User access status:

ealth Ministry , Covid-19 , Rt


Next In Nation

Sabah to ban inter-district travel from May 10
Balik kampung: Over 130,000 students leave varsities for Hari Raya at home
Special mission to repatriate M’sians in India
Cops to probe ‘interference’
Federal govt increases allocations for states
Najib and shop manager to be fined
M’sian workers upset over Singapore’s extended quarantine period
Probe into SOP violation by Neelofa, husband in final stage
No letting up as new Covid-19 cases remain above 3,500
Bazaars, malls visited by Covid-19 positive individuals identified

Stories You'll Enjoy