PETALING JAYA: The Health Ministry projects that Malaysia could have more than 3,000 daily Covid-19 cases by Hari Raya Aidilfitri next month if non-compliance with the standard operating procedures (SOPs) continues.
The end of May would then see about 5,000 daily cases should SOPs continue to be flouted, said the Health Ministry in a chart of its latest forecast posted on Twitter on Friday (April 23) morning.
However, if SOPs are followed, cases could shrink to about 500 infections daily by Hari Raya, which is expected to fall on May 13.
Cases would then peter out to less than 500 daily cases by the end of May should all Malaysians embrace the SOPs.
The “non-compliance of SOPs” scenario assumes that Covid-19 has an effective reproduction number (Rt) of 1.2 while in the “compliance to SOPs” scenario, the Rt is assumed to be 0.8.
The current Rt has actually risen slightly to 1.16 from 1.15 previously as Malaysia continues the trend of clocking in more than 2,000 daily cases while concurrently, the national immunisation programme, which began in February, is running.
An Rt of 1.16 means that for every 100 newly infected persons, they could potentially infect another 116 new persons.
On Thursday (April 22), 2,875 new cases were reported, the most in almost two months, bringing the cumulative number of Covid-19 infections since the outbreak began early last year to 384,688.