Lower car sales forecast for January

PETALING JAYA: After record sales in 2023, carmakers in Malaysia may begin the new year by selling fewer vehicles in January 2024, says TA Research.

The research house, which has a “neutral” view on the automotive sector, expects the total industry volume (TIV) in January 2024 to fall below December 2023’s 78,398 units.

As for the whole of 2024, it forecasts the sector’s total vehicles sold or TIV to drop by 18.7% to 650,000 units, compared with 2023’s 799,731 units.

The research house also gathered that Perodua and Toyota’s production schedules were not affected by Daihatsu’s procedural irregularities late last year.

“Maintain ‘sell’ on MBM Resources Bhd and Bermaz Auto Bhd, while Sime Darby Bhd remains a ‘hold’.

“Lastly, our target price for UMW Holdings Bhd is benchmarked to the general offer price of RM5 per share offered by Sime Darby.

“We advise shareholders to accept the offer,” TA Research said in a note yesterday.

Last year, the sector’s TIV increased by 10.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), according to data from the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA).

The passenger-car segment increased by 12% y-o-y to 719,160 units, and the commercial-vehicle segment increased by 2% y-o-y to 80,571 units.

Perodua and Proton registered stronger sales of 330,325 units (up by 17.1% y-o-y) and 150,975 units (up 11% y-o-y), respectively.

The combined market share of national makes increased to 66.9% for 2023, compared with 65.1% previously.

The market shares for national cars have remained strong compared with 2014-2018, hovering at around 53% to 55%.

Meanwhile, the combined sales of non-national cars increased by 6.1% y-o-y to 237,860 units, thanks to higher volumes registered by Toyota and Mazda. This offset lower sales volume from other marques.

On the sale of electrified vehicles, TA Research noted that volume jumped by almost 69% y-o-y in 2023 to 38,214 units, comprising 10,159 units of electric vehicles (EVs) and 28,055 units of hybrid vehicles.

MAA categorised hybrid vehicles and EVs under the segment xEV. EV sales do not include Tesla, as the new entrant is not an MAA member.

“According to the media, MAA expects xEV to contribute to 9% to 10% of TIV in 2024, up from about 5% in 2023, and EVs are expected to contribute 2%, up from 1% recorded in 2023,” said the research house.