REMEMBER the jajaran baru (new alignment) I mentioned might happen in a previous column “Mighty strange bedfellows"? Well, it has officially manifested in the Negri Sembilan state elections, for which campaigning kicked off yesterday.
This jajaran baru was already in the making before the recent Johor state polls, when clear signals emerged that PAS was actively pushing for a new opposition configuration.
Even though PAS faced Barisan in 11 seats during that race, it strategically instructed its supporters to vote for Barisan in constituencies where it was not contesting. While PAS ultimately won zero seats under the Perikatan banner in Johor, it was viewed as a calculated loss for the sake of a bigger battle.
The Negri Sembilan polls will serve as the ultimate litmus test for whether this new alignment is viable. On paper, the pact looks as dominant as France did when it was touted to win the World Cup – but the quality of the execution on the ground remains to be seen.
Negri Sembilan is fundamentally different from Johor, which is a historic Barisan stronghold that it is capable of ruling entirely on its own. Should this newly forged political alignment prove successful on polling day on Aug 1, it will severely disrupt the delicate equilibrium of the national unity government across three major fronts.
First, a failure in Negri Sembilan will ignite an existential dilemma for DAP and its non-Malay backing. Having long served as the electoral bedrock of Pakatan by guaranteeing solid non-Malay support, the party now finds itself vulnerable. The Johor election demonstrated that its traditional base can soften when voter sentiment shifts. If DAP performs as poorly in Negri Sembilan as it did in Johor – where it lost four of the 10 seats it won during the 2022 polls – the party will face intense internal pressure over its alliances.
A second poor showing will force a defining debate at the party’s rescheduled National Congress on Aug 16, when delegates might question whether holding Cabinet positions is worth the electoral cost.
Ultimately, any formal exit or scaled-back participation by DAP would create the perception that the federal alliance led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim could fall like a Jenga tower.
A precedent for this friction has already been set at the state level. DAP recently announced its immediate withdrawal from the Umno-led Melaka state government, moving its four assemblymen to the opposition bloc. The party’s official reason was its staunch opposition to a newly passed constitutional amendment allowing the appointment of unelected, nominated state assemblymen, which it slammed as a violation of democratic principles.
However, some observers have dismissed the move as mere political posturing. In Pahang, DAP quietly remains within the Umno-led government despite the presence of nominated assemblymen. Furthermore, back in 2018, Sabah DAP’s then treasurer-general accepted a nominated assemblyman post.
This ideological instability highlights a deeper systemic fracture. When parties are forced to constantly shift their principles to protect local turf, the broader structural architecture begins to warp. And that brings us to the second major front: the battleground for Malay voter legitimacy.
On paper, a tactical understanding under which PAS transfers its grassroots machinery to Umno candidates poses a direct, structural threat to Pakatan. Anwar’s coalition faces the serious threat of losing its support completely in the Malay heartland. Without commanding a credible share of the Malay vote, the Federal Government will face a persistent crisis of political legitimacy, irrespective of its raw parliamentary numbers in the Dewan Rakyat.
Finally, a victory for this new alignment will drastically shift the internal balance of power and pave the way for a broader federal realignment. An empowered Umno, coming off strong performances in this new configuration, will hold absolute leverage over the prime minister.
This federal leverage is exactly where the macro-maths of Parliament transforms into a high-stakes game of political Jenga. If an empowered Umno decides to cash in that leverage, walk away from the government, and formalise this new alignment at the national level, the entire structural integrity of the federal administration changes in an instant.
Imagine the Dewan Rakyat as a 220-seat Jenga tower. Under the current arrangement, the government bloc stands tall at 151 blocks (seats), while the opposition bloc sits with 69.
The government bloc is anchored by Pakatan Harapan (77 seats), Barisan Nasional (30), Gabungan Parti Sarawak (23), Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (seven), ex-Bersatu Rebels (six), Parti Warisan (three), Sabah Independents (two), and one seat each from Sabah STAR, Parti KDM, and Parti Bangsa Malaysia. Standing opposite them, the opposition bloc comprises PAS (43), Parti Wawasan Negara (19, including Bersatu MPs whose hearts are with Hamzah), Bersatu (six), and Muda (one).
Structural integrity changes the moment a major pillar moves. If Barisan slides its 30 blocks out from the government pile and lands them squarely on top of the opposition pile, the tower flips instantly. The government’s stack shrinks to 121 blocks.
At the same time, the opposition shoots up to 99, completely shattering the ruling coalition’s massive 82-block advantage and leaving the prime minister hanging onto a razor-thin 10-seat safety margin above the 111-seat majority line.
From there, it only takes a few disgruntled regional players or independents wiggling their blocks out of the remaining pile to bring the framework down entirely.
Of course, blocks on the opposition side can also switch back. When push comes to shove, Bersatu with six MPs could support the unity government for the sake of ... unity (which is a political party’s favourite excuse).
But excuses won’t hold the tower up forever. If the jajaran baru delivers a crushing blow in Negri Sembilan and ripples into the upcoming Melaka polls, the unity government’s entire Jenga tower could come crashing down.
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