Asean meets in an uncertain world

Busy abroad: Mohamad delivering a speech during the AMM last year. The minister has had to put his campaigning in the Negri Sembilan elections on hold to attend this year’s meeting in the Philippines beginning tomorrow. — Filepic/AP

FROM small-town Rantau to metropolitan Manila, Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan has to temporarily abandon his campaign trail right after nomination day for the Negri Sembilan election.

He is putting on a different hat for the next two days.

“National duty,” was his short reply when asked if he is attending the Asean Ministers Meeting (AMM) hosted by current Asean Chair, the Philippines.

Mohamad is in the Philippine capital starting tomorrow to attend the annual AMM, one of the highlights in the Asean calendar, where foreign ministers discuss Asean’s political-security cooperation as well as its relations with external parties.

He joins top diplomats from China, Russia, and the United States among others, on the international stage for a flurry of meetings.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are among the high-profile names expected to attend this week’s meeting. It takes place amid geopolitical uncertainty and the ongoing US war against Iran that has disrupted trade and created global economic stress.

Mohamad, who is defending his Rantau state seat, has already informed his Philippine counterpart, Theresa Lazaro, that he will be cutting short his trip to return home to continue campaigning for a crucial win for Barisan Nasional in Negri Sembilan.

“I will co-chair the Asean-China meeting and attend a few other meetings. It is my responsibility as the foreign minister,” he told this writer.

Asean and China are still negotiating a code of conduct aimed at managing tensions in the South China Sea. Both sides are still hopeful progress can be achieved in the long-drawn negotiations.

In 2002 Asean and China issued the Declaration of Conduct in the South China Sea seeking peaceful solutions to disputes and pursuing cooperation in the maritime area. Four of the claimant countries are Asean members – Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. China and Taiwan are also claiming their stakes.

Year in and year out another issue on the table for the foreign ministers to tackle is recalcitrant Myanmar.

Asean foreign ministers held an informal meeting in Bangkok on July 12 with their Myanmar counterpart, Tin Maung Swe. It was the first face-to-face engagement between Asean foreign ministers and Myanmar since the 2021 military coup.

This meeting took place following the Asean leaders’ decision directing the ministers to continue discussing how Asean can push forward constructive and principled engagement with Myanmar, mindful of the Five-point Consensus (5PC).

Myanmar’s participation at Asean meetings since the coup has been restricted to non-political representatives.

The 5PC calls for an immediate end to violence, the delivery of humanitarian assistance, dialogue among all parties, the appointment of a special envoy to Myanmar, and the envoy’s direct engagement with all stakeholders.

After that meeting last Sunday, Lazaro held talks the next day with ethnic minority rebel groups and a government-backed negotiation committee to discuss the way forward on an inclusive national political dialogue.

Mohamad, who was represented by a senior official at the Bangkok meeting, said it is important for Asean to decide its next step in this issue and present its report at the next Asean Summit in November.

“It is not a review of the 5PC. It is more about the outlook of Asean’s approach.

“We will give our views to the leaders because a decision has to be made at their level,” Moha-mad said.

The foreign minister was in Naypyidaw in May where he met Maung Swe. He told the Dewan Rakyat last month that Malaysia has not recognised Myanmar’s new government following its election, but is keeping communication channels open to prevent a diplomatic vacuum that could invite external powers to interfere in Asean affairs.

The foreign minister stressed that Malaysia’s engagement with Myanmar does not amount to recognition of its new administration, and that Malaysia remains firmly anchored to the 5PC, which continues to be Asean’s core framework for resolving this prolonged political crisis.

Malaysia is part of the “Asean troika” established by leaders in 2023 to ensure continuity in the grouping’s work handling the Myanmar crisis. The troika consists of the previous, current, and incoming Asean chair: Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore.

After Mohamad’s May visit to Myanmar and the recent meeting in Bangkok, questions remain about whether engagements with the various stakeholders have truly led to progress.

Asean officials argue that Myanmar must stop killing its own people – however, details remain unclear as various sides hurl accusations.

“They are claiming rebel armed groups are attacking government forces and those groups in return accuse the government of killing civilians.

“The government is claiming their forces are killing guerillas. The stakeholders are also using the same tactic. It is difficult to ascertain whose version is true,” said a diplomat.

More engagement with key stakeholders is expected in the coming months. While Asean is serious about helping Myanmar achieve a peaceful and lasting solution to the crisis, can Myanmar really be trusted to want the same?

Peace in the country and progress in negotiations with Myanmar are still elusive while millions of their own people suffer and neighbouring countries have to deal with fleeing refugees amid the worsening humanitarian crisis.

There is no deadline set and Myanmar is testing Asean’s patience.