Malay tsunami forming in Negri Sembilan?

SOME had referred to the unveiling of the Barisan Nasional election candidates for the Negri Sembilan election as “the return of Tok Mat”.

Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan or Tok Mat was a three-term Mentri Besar (MB) but, no, he is not interested in returning to the post.

The reference to his return lay in the context of the way he commanded the stage ahead of an election that will be much more intense and has much more at stake than the one in Johor.

“I guess it was his demeanour and understanding of local sentiments. He rallied the crowd,” said lawyer and Umno politician Ainul Aizat Ahmad Ishak.

Tok Mat has travelled the world as the Foreign Minister but he lapses into the quaint local dialect or “loghat Nogori” when in front of a home audience and it gave the Wednesday night event that uniquely Negri Sembilan flavour.

Unlike Johor, where the outcome was a foregone conclusion, both Pakatan Harapan and Barisan seem equally confident in Negri Sembilan.

Election night will be a nail-biting moment although cynical onlookers are wondering if more drama lies ahead given the way the other claimant to the throne has been making his presence felt in the state.

Moreover, a situation is developing where both the former MB and the caretaker MB, Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun, popularly known as Tok Min, will be playing key roles in the election.

Tok Mat, who is state Barisan chairman and Umno deputy president, is defending his seat in Rantau.

Tok Min, in a surprise move, has relocated from his Sikamat seat to Linggi, one of five state seats in Port Dickson where he is the MP.

It is like asking voters to compare the track record of the two men and the party they represent.

This could be Tok Min’s toughest election yet because Pakatan is still struggling with Malay support. The election might be his Waterloo.

Pakatan leaders have heaped praises on Tok Min who is the poster boy. He has also been portrayed as a victim, cornered into calling a snap election after Umno and PAS assemblymen withdrew their support.

They also blamed state Umno chief Datuk Seri Jalaluddin Alias for collapsing the state government.

The Umno side, in defending Jalauddin, said they only wanted Tok Min to take responsibility for mishandling the palace crisis. Umno politicians claimed they would have gone on supporting the state government under a new MB.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is expected to lead the Pakatan campaign and has warned all parties not to touch on the palace crisis.

Actually none of the parties would want to be seen taking sides in the crisis that has rocked the foundation of the state’s unique Adat Perpatih system and pitted the state’s co-rulers against each other, with the Yang Di Pertuan Besar on one side and the Undang Yang Empat on the other.

It is like pretending not to notice the elephant in the room because the crisis has consumed the local folk who talk about it in the warung, when they mingle after praying at the surau and even among family members at home.

According to a lawyer from Seremban, Pakatan’s decision to convene in Kuala Pilah for the announcement of its election candidates was, rightly or wrongly, seen as a nod towards the Seri Menanti seat of the ruler which is located there.

Barisan chose to unveil its candidates in Paroi which, with 60,704 registered voters, has the biggest catchment of votes.

Anwar was at his fiery best when addressing the Pakatan faithful in Kuala Pilah. He was upset about the snap polls which he said were unnecessary.

He lashed out at those who tried to forge a backdoor government as greedy for power, hungry for projects and hypocrites who did not care about the people.

All that angry rhetoric was aimed squarely at Umno and the Prime Minister said he felt deeply betrayed.

It requires a simple majority of 19 out of the 36 state seats to form the government but only a strong majority can guarantee a stable government that can then attempt to mediate in the palace crisis.

The polls have also become the public stage for the end of two partnerships - one between PAS and Bersatu, the other between Pakatan and Barisan.

What has happened to the special cikgu-and-anak murid relationship that Anwar has with Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi?

Is it over? Has the student broken free from his mentor?

How much longer can they sit together in Putrajaya, smiling and nodding at each other while going in different directions?

Will Anwar be constantly looking over his shoulder in his Cabinet of frenemies?

Has the Madani government become a house of cards?

At the heart of the troubling circumstances is the fact that the Negri Sembilan election has narrowed down to a battle for the Malay votes.

“The election will be decided by where the Malay votes go, it’s a battle for the Malay heart and mind,” said Ainul Aizat.

Malays leaders have reached the conclusion that if 90%of Chinese voters swayed to DAP, it is time for Malay voters to sway to Malay parties.

Pictures of Umno and PAS leaders mingling like old friends at the nomination centres on Saturday morning have flooded social media, sending a message loud and clear to the Malay base.

The perceived electoral understanding between Umno and PAS must not be underestimated.

A confluence of the blue and green waves might become a Malay tsunami.