When single events change the course of politics

Possible blips: (From left) Shafie and Kitingan facing court cases and Benedick quitting as minister could have a seismic effect on the upcoming Sabah polls. — Filepics/The Star

WHAT are the catalytic blips that have happened or could happen in the upcoming Sabah elections?

A catalytic blip is a term I coined to describe a sudden, high-impact political shock – such as a key resignation or a political figure being charged in court – that becomes an instant, decisive trigger for a seismic political shift.

There are a couple of examples from Sabah’s political past that explain what I mean.

Tan Sri Joseph Pairin Kitingan, then a state minister and Berjaya vice-president, quit the party on Aug 15, 1984. Subsequently, he formed Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) on March 5, 1985, and 47 days later, his party won the Sabah polls. The sentiment that drove PBS to its narrow victory came to be called the Spirit of 1985.

In the 1990 General Election, PBS quit Barisan Nasional four days after nomination day. Then prime minister and Barisan chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad called it “a stab in the back”. Arguably, it was a catalytic blip as PBS won 14 out of the 20 parliamentary seats in Sabah. If it had remained in Barisan, most of the seats could have been won by DAP.

Back to the present.

One highly charged event has occurred although it hasn’t reached catalytic blip status yet: Sabah STAR, led by Datuk Seri Dr Jeffrey Kitingan, and SAPP, headed by Datuk Seri Yong Teck Lee, left – or was kicked out of, depending on who you ask – ruling coalition Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).

At the moment, I categorise it as an event blip, which in my vocabulary means a short-lived interruption that temporarily alters a political situation.

STAR and SAPP going solo is capturing a strong and positive Sabahan sentiment, but the blip has yet to reach its full potential. Both parties need a less haphazard narrative on why they are going solo.

There are three possible events which could turn into catalytic or event blips.

> Upko president Datuk Ewon Benedick quitting as a minister.

> Parti Warisan president Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal being charged with contempt of court and found guilty.

> STAR president Kitingan being charged with corruption.

On Oct 19, during the Penampang Upko Convention in Moyog, near Kota Kinabalu, Benedick, the federal Entrepreneur Development and Cooperatives Minister, announced that he will quit his post if the Attorney General’s Chambers (AGC) files an appeal against the Kota Kinabalu High Court’s recent positive ruling on Sabah’s constitutional entitlement to 40% of net federal revenue.

Were it to happen, this bold move would immediately position Benedick as a principled hero among many Sabahans, as he would be demonstrating his willingness to sacrifice his high-ranking federal ministerial post to defend the state’s constitutional rights and secure a more financially autonomous future for Sabah.

However, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, who is also chairman of Pakatan Harapan – the coalition to which Benedick’s party belongs – could play tarik tali (tug-of-war) by delaying the final announcement on the AGC’s decision to appeal. This prolonged game of uncertainty could put Benedick’s credibility at risk.

If Shafie is found guilty of contempt of court over his public remarks on the Zara Qairina Mahathir inquest – a verdict that could disqualify him from contesting in the Sabah polls – he could be seen as a political martyr, especially among his core Bajau/Suluk and sizeable group of Chinese supporters, potentially generating a massive sympathy vote for his party, Warisan.

Similarly, should STAR president and Deputy Chief Minister I, Kitingan face corruption charges relating to the Datuk Albert Tei allegations of corruption (purportedly involving bribes tied to mineral exploration licences), it could – ironically – galvanise sympathy.

This is because this development might be framed as political persecution of a leader of the Kadazandusun Murut and Rungus communities, who have long felt politically disadvantaged while fighting for Sabah’s constitutional rights.

For his supporters and fencesitters, the charge could be interpreted as a second “Pairin moment”, invoking the 1994 federal court case against his older brother, Pairin. It could serve the narrative that the Keningau MP and former Tambunan assemblyman is being politically targeted for championing native rights.

Some political insiders told me that the Shafie and Kitingan events won’t happen. That Shafie won’t be found guilty, and Kitingan won’t be charged.

In the past, the catalytic blips occurred in the fertile ground of discontent (1985: PBS versus Berjaya; and 1990: PBS versus Dr Mahathir), political volcanoes waiting to erupt. Is there a similarly fertile ground of discontent now? Yes, but which event? Could there be a Spirit of 2025?

And who is destined to lead Sabah on Nov 29? Benedick? Shafie? Kitingan? Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor (the caretaker chief minister and GRS chairman)? Datuk Ruji Ubi (PKR’s bet in Merotai)? Datuk Bung Moktar Radin (Sabah Umno chief)? Datuk Seri Salleh Said Keruak (former Sabah chief minister and Umno’s former Usukan assemblyman)?

I’m tempted to lay some friendly bets of coffee with some people.