POP quiz on Sabah politics: If you were a voter in Moyog in the 1999 state elections, would you have (a) voted for the incumbent assemblyman who was the chief minister? (b) Voted out the chief minister because you support Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS)?
Arguably, that 61% voted for Malakun because they wanted PBS to win and form the state government, and also, they wanted to punish Dompok for leaving PBS in 1994. In comparison, 36% wanted to retain one of them, ie someone born and bred in Moyog, as chief minister.
(Yes, there are other reasons, such as candidate B being my father’s auntie’s brother-in-law, or that candidate C had a limp handshake.)
On the morning of Dompok’s defeat, I was in Donggongon town, the main meeting place for Moyog voters, having ngiu chap (beef noodles). I got the sense that the voters were thinking, “What have we done?”
What they had done was to ensure Moyog no longer had a chief minister in a government that remained the same, and PBS – as cold political arithmetic predicted – was still in the Opposition.
What was the driving force behind the Moyog voters’ decision – was it rationality or emotion?
I’ve covered Sabah elections since 1994 as a journalist, and I experienced the “Spirit of 1985” sweeping PBS into power that year. I know that emotion rather than rationality rules the Sabah polls.
As Drew Westen’s The Political Brain argues, emotion, not rationality, is the primary driver of voter behaviour. Westen asserts that the idea of voters as “cool calculators” weighing facts and policies is a myth, as neuroscientific evidence shows that when emotion and logic conflict, emotion invariably wins.
To win elections, political campaigns have to win people’s hearts. They must have compelling political narratives that connect with what voters care about and who they believe they are.
The candidates who win are the ones who speak to voters’ hearts, not just their minds with dry policy points.
For the Spirit of 1985 campaign, PBS used the emotive phrase “Sabah for Sabahans”. It rallied Sabahans, winning in 25 plus one (Moyog, for which Malakun was disqualified, and PBS supported Pasok) constituencies in the 48-seat Sabah assembly. In the 2025 elections, it will be a test of whether “Sabah for Sabahans” is still relevant after 40 years.
The slogan means Sabah’s leadership, government, and interests should be determined by Sabah-based political parties instead of being dictated by national coalitions such as Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional.
It is also a call for Sabahans to have greater control over their own state’s destiny, resources, and governance, with less political interference from Putrajaya.
The parties or coalitions that currently qualify as “Sabah for Sabahans” entities are Parti Warisan, S4S (Sabah 4 Sabahans coalition, which consists, so far, of Sabah STAR and SAPP), Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS, which comprises six local parties such as PGRS and PBS), and Parti KDM.
There are also Sabah-based parties in the national coalition, such as Upko in Pakatan and PBRS in Barisan.
Will the Sabah for Sabahans coalitions and parties shut out parti Malaya (Umno, PKR, DAP, and Bersatu)? No. Umno, DAP and Bersatu will win seats. The campaign to kick Umno out of Sabah (after its ironclad control of the state ended in 2018) is not likely to work. The Malay-based party still has pockets of support in certain seats.
The big question mark is whether PKR can retain its two seats in Sabah. There is an anti-PKR mood brewing in Sabah and, to a lesser extent, anti-DAP.
I began to feel the Chinese swing against DAP and PKR two months ago. Usually, in DAP stronghold seats like Luyang, near Kota Kinabalu, the voters are confident the party will win. Now, mainly in the last few weeks, the talk is about Warisan.
The voters who supported Pakatan in forming the Federal Government after the 15th General Election in 2022 are disappointed with the Madani government. They feel it is not the government they voted for.
Among the issues they have with Sabah DAP is that its leaders have accepted Datuk titles, and, critically, the party withdrew its legal suit against the federal government for Sabah’s 40% stake in revenue as per its constitutional right.
Currently, DAP is likely to win Luyang and Kapayan but lose two seats in Sandakan and one each in Tawau and Kota Kinabalu. But where will the Chinese votes go?
Previously, the only option other than DAP was Warisan. But now that SAPP is out of GRS, it is offering itself as the real choice.
The Sabah Law Society’s historic victory on Friday at the High Court, which affirmed the state’s right to 40% of net federal revenue, is a monumental legal breakthrough whose immediate political impact is most evident within the urban, politically-engaged populace and Kota Kinabalu constituencies such as Api-Api, Luyang, and Likas.
It will put significant pressure on parties like PKR and DAP, which Sabahans see as part of the Federal Government that is denying them their rights.
In rural areas, it is not something the B40 (lower income) crowd see. They are struggling with nasi and ikan basung (bread and butter) issues. In seats like Nabawan, Banggi, and Sugut, voters want a YB they can trust to take care of their kais pagi, makan pagi (living from hand to mouth) existence.
Another prevailing sentiment is about going solo, a stand championed by STAR (led by Datuk Seri Dr Jeffrey Kitingan) and SAPP (led by Datuk Seri Yong Teck Lee). The two parties’ membership in GRS ended on Oct 2, as they wanted GRS to go solo as opposed to having an electoral pact with Pakatan.
I have been checking the popularity of the solo sentiment since then. While it depends on the seat, on average it stands at around 30%. To win big, S4S (which is led by STAR and SAPP) has to come up with a compelling narrative to make the sentiment go to 80%.
Zara Qairina Mahathir’s case might blow up. A few months ago, it was a hot topic but now emotions around the schoolgirl’s death have cooled. But I am beginning to see more memes involving a certain VVIP in the tragedy. Party X and Y (depending on which faction) will try to link her death to the VVIP’s political dynasty as an election issue.
In the hands of a skilled spinmeister, the emotion of Putra-jaya robbing Sabah of its rights and the “solo” cry could become a highly emotive tsunami. Yet, while emotion may win the polls, it is the economic reality – the nasi and ikan basung issues – that voters are left to face the day after.
The 2025 Sabah elections will be a defining contest between the heart’s yearning for autonomy and the stomach’s demand for survival.
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