Round and round it goes

Working together: Anwar (centre) and Hajiji (left) presenting donations in Tuaran, Sabah, in March. Anwar is hoping Pakatan will form a cooperative pact with Barisan and GRS in Sabah and has said he will mediate between the two coalitions if needed. — Filepic/The Star

SABAH’S political merry-go-round continues, with parties and coalitions negotiating “promiscuous” alliances that are destined for betrayal. As the next state election nears, the political landscape is marked by intense, often secret, negotiations over seat-sharing and alliances – a shifting and fluid dynamic that I call “incestuous politics” due to the constant crossing of established party lines.

First, let’s review the main coalitions in Sabah’s ABC of political parties.

Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), which is the backbone of the Sabah government, comprises eight local parties: Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (PGRS), Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), Sabah STAR, Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), United Sabah National Organisation (Usno), Parti Harapan Rakyat Sabah (PHRS), Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and Parti Cinta Sabah (PCS).

Pakatan Harapan, which is backing the GRS government led by Chief Minister and GRS chairman Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor, comprises DAP, PKR, Amanah, and the United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (Upko).

Barisan Nasional, which is in the Opposition in Sabah, consists of Umno, MCA, MIC, and Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS).

Perikatan Nasional (Perikatan), in the Opposition in Sabah and at the federal level, is composed of Bersatu, PAS, and Gerakan.

There might be a fifth coalition, reportedly to be called Sabah for Sabahans (S4S). Local parties are wheeling and dealing to form a bloc with warlords who may not be fielded as candidates.

The main parties and movements not part of a coalition but still with a chance of winning seats are Parti Warisan, Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM), and Black Wave (comprising politicians who will contest as independents).

So far, based on the negotiations I’ve heard about, the political alliances will be: Pakatan/Barisan vs Pakatan/GRS vs Perikatan.

Confused why Pakatan is in two coalitions? GRS and Barisan are at odds with each other, while Pakatan can work with either of these two coalitions. If GRS (especially PGRS) and Barisan (specifically Umno) were not eyeing at least 14 seats, it would have been the perfect threesome for the three coalitions.

However, do not overlook the fact that the threesome may happen, even though Barisan chairman and Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and GRS chairman Hajiji have effectively shut the door.

Politics is the art of the impossible. Prime Minister and Pakatan chairman Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim still hopes that Pakatan will form a cooperative pact with Barisan and GRS in Sabah. The PKR president stated that he will continue to serve as a mediator/peacemaker between the two coalitions.

One way to bring GRS back to the negotiation table with Barisan is to weaken it. This can be achieved by splintering the eight-party coalition, specifically by inducing STAR, SAPP, and PHRS to leave it. The underlying theory is that a weakened GRS will then be compelled to negotiate with Barisan to share seats, especially those that Umno won in the 2020 Sabah state elections.

A corruption charge could also be used to weaken GRS. It was déjà vu for Sabahans who were around when the Anti-Corruption Agency, now the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC), charged then Sabah chief minister Tan Sri Joseph Pairin Kitingan with corruption in the 1990s. A few days ago, his brother, Datuk Seri Dr Jeffrey Kitingan, who is STAR president, was questioned by the MACC over Datuk Albert Tei’s allegations.

Tei is reported to be the businessman behind several videos “exposing” politicians allegedly involved in corrupt activities between 2023 and 2024. The irony is that Tei released a press statement yesterday, stating that his revelations about Jeffrey should not be used as a bargaining chip or a tool of political blackmail to serve a political agenda in Sabah.

Some Sabahans view the corruption charge against Joseph previously and the current allegations against Jeffrey as a manoeuvre designed to undermine leaders advocating for Sabah rights.

So far, GRS and Pakatan are going into the Sabah polls as partners. But the political maths doesn’t add up. Of the 73 seats in the Sabah assembly, GRS wants to contest 55 seats and give 18 seats to Pakatan. But Pakatan wants more than 23 seats.

If they can’t agree on the numbers, there are two likely scenarios. GRS and Pakatan agree to not contest top leaders’ seats, such as PGRS president Hajiji’s Sulaman, Upko president Datuk Ewon Benedick’s Kadamaian, and PBS president Datuk Seri Joachim Gunsalam’s Kundasang, leaving the rest open to “langgar” (literally, to collide, meaning to breach an electoral pact) or the polite phrase to use is have a “friendly fight” over the rest.

The other option is GRS Solo, which most Sabahans want – a Sabah-only coalition versus peninsula-based coalitions such as Pakatan, Barisan, and Perikatan.

For GRS Solo to happen, let’s see whether the payau (sambar deer) characteristics of a politician will play out. A GRS leader is likened to a payau because “makin dia menunduk, makin menanduk (the more he bows his head, the more he will head-butt). Many in the Sabah-based coalition are hoping that GRS Solo will happen at the last minute.

Warisan, headed by former Sabah chief minister Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal, is on record as going solo after all 73 seats. However, an Ahmad Zahid statement on Wednesday suggests that Umno and Warisan have a secret deal: The Umno president told the media that he did not dismiss the possibility of working with Warisan in the upcoming state elections.

But I’m told that Warisan is no longer interested in seat deals as it is very confident of forming the next Sabah government. Its leaders already know which minister posts and government-linked corporation positions they are going to get.

From speaking with politicians from all sides, it is clear that many negotiations are ongoing. For example, there is a deputy president of a Sabah-based party, which is not part of any alliance, who has agreed to be a partner with Barisan, GRS, and Pakatan separately. I’m not sure if these coalitions are aware that the assemblyman has adulterous political dealings with their rivals.

Deals are being made and betrayals are being plotted. What is said in public to the media is sometimes the opposite of what is negotiated privately.