IN politics, can one plus one ever equal two?
On Oct 18, when tabling Budget 2025, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim announced that the government planned to introduce a new law enabling some convicts to serve their sentences at home instead of in prison.
On Oct 24, at the Kuala Lumpur Court Complex, which was hearing his father’s 1MDB cases, Datuk Mohd Nizar Najib read a statement in which Najib publicly apologised to all Malaysians for the scandal.
Is one (Anwar’s house arrest announcement) plus one (Najib’s 1MDB apology) equal to Najib getting out of jail? That is the political maths that is trending.
First, let’s look at the official statement.
Communications Minister and government spokesperson Fahmi Fadzil said the proposal to introduce a law allowing house arrest for some offences seeks to reduce recidivism rates and prison overcrowding, and is not aimed at getting Najib out of jail.
“This has nothing to do with any individual,” he said.
“We need to adapt to the times as we see many other countries embracing restorative justice, and we too are headed that way.”
But Malaysia is the land of conspiracy theories where, sometimes, some theories come true.
The other day, I was at the State Archive in Kota Kinabalu, looking through newspapers published in the 1990s. As a journalist, it was rather amusing to see some of the headlines of stories that – with the benefit of history – were technically white lies.
One of them was then prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad saying he would not sack Anwar; it was published just days before he made the historical move to dismiss his deputy prime minister and Umno deputy president in 1998.
“That is our red line. We will not vote for a law that will release Najib from jail. We used 1MDB to win GE15,” a government MP, who was in the Opposition before the 15th General Election in 2022, told me.
Just to double-check his political maths on the two news stories – which his fellow lawmaker Fahmi said were unrelated – I asked him if he thought they equalled to Najib’s possible release from prison.
“Anwar announced that the government was working towards a house arrest law. The next few days, Najib apologised to Malaysians for 1MDB. There is a deal to get him out of jail,” he explained.
“But isn’t it better for some in power for Najib to remain in jail?” I asked, playing devil’s advocate.
The theory is that Najib under house arrest could be the Thak-sin Shinawatra of Malaysia: the former Thai prime minister was in exile for a decade following a conviction but could still influence politics in Thailand. Even-tually, Shinawatra became a comparatively free man after returning home and serving out his sentence under house arrest. He controls Thai politics through his daughter, Paetongtarn Shina-watra, who is the current Prime Minister.
The politician I was speaking to did not rule out a play within a play where those in government who feared Najib could make a political comeback if released from jail, could just be appeasing Najib and his supporters with the prospect of house arrest.
“A play within a play,” I said, quoting Shakespeare’s Hamlet.
The Bard’s character employs a play to prick the conscience of the king. To prick the conscience of my source – whose party was voted into power because it wanted Najib and the Umno kleptocrats to go to jail, among other rallying points – I asked what his party would do if the new house arrest law was tabled.
“It will be our red line. We will not vote for such a law. Our supporters will not accept it,” he said. “Even now, they find it difficult to exist with Umno,” in the unity government.
“But your party has passed many red lines since coming into power,” I pointed out
“If the law is tabled, we will need to meet to discuss our stand,” he said.
I am cynical, I doubt there will be an impassable red line, as I believe that most politicians will do anything (including selling that intangible but priceless thing we all own) to stay in power.
Take the halving of Najib’s sentence. He was convicted and sentenced to 12 years in jail for corruption in July 2020. In February 2024, his sentence was halved and his fines reduced from RM210mil to RM50mil.
Did any political party that had used 1MDB as a rallying cry during 2022’s GE15 protest? Did they quit the unity government following the reduction of Najib’s sentence?
Will a new law on house arrest lead to Najib’s release?
If we put two and two together, the answer is yes. However, in politics, adding two and two together can also make five. Or three.
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