A fantasy political scenario

Bersatu founder and president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin with other supreme council members and delegates at the Bersatu convention in Kuala Lumpur on Saturday. — RAJA FAISAL HISHAN/The Star

“DO you think there will be Bersatu by-elections?” a political analyst asked me in March.

My friend was referring to the possibility that the parliamentary seats of six Bersatu Opposition MPs, who had pledged their support for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, would become vacant.

“It probably depends on the Speaker, and we can already guess his decision,” I replied.

“It should not, actually,” said the political analyst, adding that if it happened, Reformasi – Anwar’s battle cry when he was in the Opposition – would become a hollow promise.

“It will be Reformati,” he said, echoing a clever play of the now popular word which is a combination of reformasi (reforms) and mati (dead).

On Wednesday, Dewan Rakyat Speaker Tan Sri Johari Abdul ruled that the six MPs would remain elected representatives. The Speaker cited a clause in the Bersatu Constitution that he deemed denied these MPs’ rights to the freedom of speech and voting rights, as enshrined in the Federal Constitution and the Dewan Rakyat Standing Orders.

Perikatan Nasional chairman and Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin disagreed, saying that the Speaker had erred in his interpretation of the Federal Constitution. “Only the court has the right to interpret the Federal Constitution,” said the Pagoh MP.

The six MPs involved in the issue are Datuk Syed Abu Hussin Hafiz Syed Abdul Fasal (Bukit Gantang), Datuk Dr Suhaili Abdul Rahman (Labuan), Zahari Kechik (Jeli), Mohd Azizi Abu Naim (Gua Musang), Datuk Iskandar Dzulkarnain Abdul Khalid (Kuala Kangsar) and Datuk Dr Zulkafperi Hanapi (Tanjong Karang).

In the Kelantan and Selangor state assemblies, the Speakers had the power to decide whether the state seats of these former Bersatu assemblymen would be vacated.

On June 16, Kelantan State Assembly Speaker Datuk Mohd Amar Nik Abdullah declared Mohd Azizi’s Nenggiri seat vacant; Mohd Azizi is also the Gua Musang MP. On Thursday, Selangor State Assembly Speaker Lau Weng San said the Selat Klang state seat, held by Datuk Abdul Rashid Asari will not be vacated – he’s a Bersatu assemblyman who declared support for Selangor Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari of Pakatan.

The decisions by the three Speakers, as expected, followed coalition lines. (Yes, Malaysian politics is that predictable.)

There’s an outcry over the Dewan Rakyat Speaker’s decision about the six former Bersatu MPs, and it is not only Perikatan that is objecting. Even Pakatan Harapan-friendly organisations and politicians – such as Bersih, PKR’s Pasir Gudang MP Hassan Karim, Umno youth chief Dr Muhamad Akmal Saleh, and Amanah’s former deputy Law minister Mohamed Hanipa Maidin – are objecting.

Ironically, the quietest ones are the proponents of the anti-party hopping law who fought for it to be enacted. There has been little protest by the DAP, which lately has been silent on many issues that it noisily fought for when it was in the Opposition.

The anti-party hopping law was passed in October 2022 to discourage MPs from becoming “frogs” and hopping from party to party to maintain personal power while destabilising the government; it was the season especially during Perikatan rule under then prime minister Muhyiddin, from 2020 to 2021. During that time there were rampant efforts to entice frogs, especially from Pakatan, to jump to support his government.

The anti-party hopping law states that an MP will stop being an MP, and there will have to be fresh elections, if the MP “resigns” or “ceases to be” a member of the political party on whose ticket he was elected.

It should have stopped the six former Bersatu MPs from jumping, as they would have lost their seats. But now, with the Dewan Rakyat Speaker’s ruling, it looks like frogging season is back. Frogs can probably jump without having to face any consequences.

If the six rogue MPs could jump without consequences, can rebel Umno MPs do so?

After the 15th General Election (GE15) in November 2022, a dozen or so Umno MPs preferred Muhyiddin as prime minister over Anwar. However, arguably, they did not support the Peri-katan chairman because they feared the anti-party hopping law could apply to them, forcing them to vacate their parliamentary seats.

Will the Speaker’s decision about these six MPs’ behaviour encourage these rebel Umno MPs to pledge their loyalty to Muhyiddin? If they do, will the Anwar government fall?

Let’s look at the numbers.

Seemingly, the Anwar government has a supermajority – more than two-thirds support from 153 out of 222 MPs, including the six rogue MPs who are now technically Independents.

Pakatan won 81 out of 222 parliamentary seats in GE15 so it didn’t win the Federal Govern-ment outright. Hence the need for a coalition government, which Anwar formed with the support of Barisan Nasional (30 MPs, including 26 from Umno), Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS, 23 MPs), Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS, six), and other smaller parties and Independent MPs.

If a dozen rebel MPs from Umno were to pull their support from Anwar, it could cause a ripple effect with other coalitions or parties following through.

However, this is a fantasy scenario (just like how many England fans think “It’s coming home” when their team plays Spain in the Euro 2024 final tonight). Perikatan is not a united coalition bent on bringing down Anwar. The powers-that-be are satisfied with Anwar’s performance as PM. The other coalitions, such as GPS, are getting what they want.

But Malaysian politics is very seasonal. One day, it might be the rainy season, and frogs from the unity government might jump.