The slogan, shared by my Bangkok friends, appeared on my Facebook timeline on the eve of the day lawmakers were to vote for a new Thai Prime Minister.
As expected, most of the MPs and senators did not respect the people’s vote. If they had, they would have picked Pita Limja-roenrat, leader of the Move Forward Party that won the most votes in Thailand’s General Election on May 14.
It was a pretty good showing in modern democracy terms: 14.3 million people voted for Pita’s party – that’s 38% of the 39.4 million votes cast. Move Forward’s coalition partner, Pheu Thai, got 10.9 million votes.
Of the 705 lawmakers voting on the premiership on Thursday, 182 voted against Pita and 199 abstained. The 42-year-old politician needed 375 votes to obtain a simple majority to become Thailand’s 30th prime minister. He only got 324 votes, 51 short of the required threshold.
Not that anyone was surprised. The system is stacked against politicians who are not part of Thailand’s conservative establishment.
Pita’s eight-party coalition controls 312 MP seats out of 500. Move Forward has the most MPs – 151 – and Pheu Thai, controlled by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has 141. However, 312 MPs were not enough to install Pita as PM, as 250 unelected senators appointed by the military junta in power were also voting. Only 13 senators respected the people’s vote and voted for Pita to be PM.
There will be another round of voting on Wednesday. But it’s not any more likely that the people’s wishes will be heeded -- if Pita is nominated again, he will likely not get the minimum votes.
His nomination might be in question because the conservative establishment has placed double obstacles in Pita’s path.
A day before the crucial vote on the premiership, the Election Commission recommended that Pita’s status as an MP be terminated because he had held shares in a media company in the past. It asked Thailand’s Constitutional Court to decide on the matter.
Hours later, the Constitutional Court accepted a case filed by a lawyer seeking the dissolution of Move Forward over its election campaign promise to amend Thailand’s notoriously strict lese majeste law.
By this coming Wednesday, Pita might be disqualified as an MP and not eligible to be nominated for the PM post; he might not even have a party anymore.
There are several scenarios for who will be the next Thai Prime Minister. One of them sees Pheu Thai going for the post with its second largest number of MPs (only 10 fewer than Move Forward’s 151). It has three PM Minister candidates: property tycoon Srettha Thavisin; Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra; and former Attorney General Chaikasem Nitisiri. The talk is Srettha will be nominated.
If that happens, Pheu Thai must convince the senators and other pro-junta parties like Bhumjaithai (with 70 MPs) to come onside to get the numbers.
Convincing them might not be difficult as, before the elections, there was talk that Thaksin had been in touch face-to-face with influential individuals linked to the conservative establishment.
Pheu Thai did not make a quick grab for the premiership as soon as the results were announced perhaps because it wanted to show – or at least go through the motions of showing – that it respected the people’s vote.
But now that Pita is highly unlikely to get the numbers and might not even be nominated again, Pheu Thai will probably tell the people that they have to compromise.
For Thailand to have a new PM – coup leader Prayut Chan-o-cha remains as premier as long as there is no successor – a deal must be made with the conservative establishment.
How will the 25 million Thais who voted for Move Forward and Pheu Thai react to their choice not being respected? Will they take to the streets to protest?
The other big question is whether Move Forward will take this deal for the sake of being in power – ie, getting ministerial posts in powerful and lucrative ministries, just minus the premiership. Or will it choose to be in the Opposition?
One game plan for Move Foward is to eschew a deal with Pheu Thai and the pro-junta parties, remain in Opposition, and go for the PM’s post in the next Thai elections in four years.
The other long-shot plans for Move Forward are: 1) Seek to revoke the Senate’s authority to vote for a prime minister; or 2) continue with further rounds of the PM post voting until the senators’ term ends in May 2024.
Another scenario could see the senators supporting a minority government backed by pro-military parties with Bhumjaithai’s Anutin Charnvirakul or Palang Pracharath’s Prawit Wongsuwon as premier.
I covered Thai politics when I was based in Bangkok from 2006 to 2010 as the Asia News Network editor and The Star’s Thailand correspondent. I learnt then that you always bet on the conservative establishment. It has tanks (all set for a coup d’etat) and the backing of institutions such as the Constitutional Court and Election Commission.
It will take time – probably until the next Thai polls – for the people’s vote to be respected.
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Move Forward Party supporters holding signs reading ‘Cancel senators’ during a protest in Bangkok on Friday after most of the unelected Senate refused to give Pita the votes he needed to become PM.
There were definite rock star vibes when Pita was on the campaign trail in May ahead of the elections. How will the 14.3 million people who voted for him react if he doesn’t get the premiership?
A Move Forward Party supporter holding up a sign during a protest in Bangkok on Wednesday after Thailand’s Election Commission announced it has concluded there is evidence that Pita had violated election law and had referred his case to the Constitutional Court. — Photos: AP
