Sabah’s jumpy politics

Pix from Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal Facebook page

TICK tock, tick tock, tick tock....

In Sabah, politics is like a time bomb waiting to explode. It is just a matter of time. Watch the usual suspects. And Sabah politicians, watch your back.

If you think the recent Melaka moves in which a Chief Minister lost his majority were explosive, Sabah’s will be more volatile and filled with even more subplots.

The fall of the Melaka government is like a Game of (Chief Minister) Thrones drama series. Two former Melaka chief ministers – Datuk Seri Idris Haron of Umno and Adly Zahari of Amanah – plotted to bring down Melaka CM Datuk Seri Sulaiman Md Ali who then got the consent of a former Melaka CM and Melaka’s Yang di-Pertua Negeri Tun Mohd Ali Rustam to dissolve the state assembly.

Sabah politics, on the other hand, is more like the Squid Game with a twist. In the hit Korean TV series, the participants kill each other off as they fight to become the sole survivor. In the Sabah version, the politicians jump to survive.

A mini political bomb exploded on Friday in Sabah when Sindumin assemblyman Datuk Dr Yusof Yacob quit Parti Warisan Sabah. He declared himself an independent supportive of the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) state government and the Federal Government.

Dr Yusof gave the standard explanation for quitting Warisan: If he continued as an Opposition assemblyman, he couldn’t serve his constituents in Sabah’s south-western Sipitang district. But many Sabahans are tired of the lame “demi rakyat” (for the people) excuse. For them, when you jump, you’re a political frog.

But Warisan can’t label him as one – because Dr Yusof’s jump out of the party is karma.

When the party led by Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal was in power from 2018 to 2020, Warisan encouraged political frogs – 10 assemblymen and an MP – to jump into its pond. It even wrangled an assemblyman from its political ally, Upko.

For the moment, Dr Yusof is an independent. Later, I’m told that he will be jumping to another party, either Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia or Umno.

Or perhaps the Sindumin assemblyman is heading into the arms of a Sabahan power broker who has money (billions), ambition (to be the most powerful man in Sabah) and political cunning (enticing assemblymen).

When explaining how powerful the power broker is, a Sabahan politician told me a decade ago: “I have four petrol stations. But X has an oil rig. How do you think I can fight him?”

“Next week, more from Warisan will follow,” my Sabah political contact told me after his golfing buddy, Dr Yusof, quit Warisan. He gave me a long list of possible jumpers.

At the federal level, the talk is that Warisan’s Lahad Datu MP Datuk Mohamaddin Ketapi might quit the party to become a Pakatan Harapan-friendly independent. On Monday, the former Tourism, Arts and Culture minister said that he is prepared to break ranks with his party to sign the memorandum of understanding for bipartisan cooperation with the Federal Government.

Mohamaddin, who is also Segama assemblyman, said he personally feels there is nothing wrong with signing the MOU because the parliamentary funds for constituencies represented by the Opposition will be channelled to the people.

“I feel there is nothing wrong with signing the MOU because at least the funds can help the rakyat,” he said on Monday when asked about talk that he might sign the agreement.

If more Warisan assemblymen jump, they might head to a new party the power broker is supposedly setting up – he’s hoping to get enough assemblymen to form the next Sabah government.

With Dr Yusof leaving Warisan, the party has lost three of the 23 state seats it won in Sabah’s snap polls in 2020. Bugaya assemblyman Manis Mukah Mohd Darah died on Nov 17 last year, and Sebatik assemblyman Hassan Amir Gani quit the party to join Bersatu on Feb 25.

What is happening to Warisan is Sabah’s political history repeating itself. When PBS, led by Sabah chief minister and party president Tan Sri Joseph Pairin Kitingan, lost power in 1994, many of its assemblymen jumped to Barisan Nasional parties.

Shafie knows the game, as he was with Umno when the federal and state governments reduced PBS to a party with just a few leaders loyal to Kitingan.

In terms of the number of assemblymen, Warisan is still a formidable party. With 20 assemblymen, it is the single largest party in the 78-member Sabah assembly, which includes six nominated assemblymen.

But Warisan, whose logo is a kapal layar (sailing boat), is seen as a sinking ship. Some politicians – arguably including Dr Yusof – have lost confidence in Shafie’s leadership.

They feel that Shafie is focusing unnecessary resources on becoming prime minister, which was one of the reasons he lost his chief minister post last year. A Warisan leader told me that Shafie should try to win back his power base – the Sabah government – before he continues to expand Warisan to contest in Peninsular Malaysia.

“The Warisan sailing ship is deft in the Sulu Sea but is it strong enough to cross the South China Sea to play politics in Kuala Lumpur?” he asked.

Some Warisan leaders also think that Shafie should have joined the state and Federal Government to get back their positions when the party was in power.

There’s still a possibility of Warisan forming the next state government if it combines with parties like Umno, Sabah Star, Bersatu, Parti Bersatu Sabah, DAP, PKR or Upko.

Last month, GRS – which consists of Perikatan Nasional, Barisan Nasional and Umno – celebrated its one-year anniversary in power after defeating the Warisan Plus coalition in the 2020 Sabah polls.

But the state government, led by Chief Minister and Sabah Bersatu chief Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor, is shaky because Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin is no longer prime minister. Some leaders of the parties in the GRS coalition are thinking of the possibility of taking over the chief minister’s post.

The political time bomb continues ticking in the Wild Wild East. Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock....