THE Melaka polls only just kicked off yesterday (Oct 31) with nomination day but seasoned political observers are already looking past voting day on Nov 14, 2026.
But the results should be predictable, say analysts.
The Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional electoral pact should win the state polls convincingly. The question is whether DAP will retain its four seats.
Bersatu, still a part of Perikatan but with an electoral pact with Pakatan Harapan and contesting 24 of the 28 state seats, is expected to not win anything, as happened in the Negri Sembilan and Johor elections.
Bersama – the little kancil (mouse deer) caught between a fight among elephants (Barisan/Perikatan versus Pakatan/Bersatu) – will likely also win zero seats.
The Sarawak state assembly has also been dissolved. No polling date has been fixed yet, but the outcome is also already a foregone conclusion, I believe.
Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), will win big. It is simply a matter of whether DAP can increase its number of seats or whether it will lose the two seats it won in the last Sarawak election in December 2021.
What makes this state election interesting to watch is who will eventually (in the far future) replace Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg as premier.
Two names are frequently mentioned: deputy premier Datuk Amar Awang Tengah Ali Hasan and Datuk Seri Alexander Nanta Linggi, who holds a Cabinet portfolio as Works Minister, is Kapit MP, and secretary-general of Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), the backbone of GPS.
The Linggi transition becomes even more probable if another deputy premier, Datuk Amar Douglas Uggah Embas, who is a deputy president of PBB, decides to retire from politics. Linggi will likely contest a state seat to ensure he has a firm footing in state politics on his path to the premier’s office.
Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Transition and Water Transformation Minister Datuk Seri Fadillah Yusof is unlikely to run. His family, which includes tycoon Tan Sri Bustari Yusof, is too financially entrenched for the powers-that-be in Kuching to allow them to consolidate a firm grip on state politics.
Word in political corridors is that Abang Johari will hand the reins to a successor whose family he trusts implicitly, transcending race or religion.
But looking past the state-level chess matches, federal stability remains the ultimate prize on everyone’s mind.
How long can the Anwar administration last?
It should comfortably last until the end of its term, it seems to me.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim might have had four PKR MPs quit and Barisan in an electoral pact with Opposition bloc Perikatan in the Johor and Negri Sembilan state polls but he still has a comfortable number to remain prime minister – and that’s even if Barisan decides to walk.
Perikatan has cracked: Bersatu, its founding member, is now cooperating with Pakatan, and 13 opposition MPs (including Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Muda’s Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman) have signed a confidence and supply agreement (CSA) with the federal government. This brings much-needed government stability and as well as a comfortable majority to Pakatan.
The only realistic way for a snap 16th General Election (GE16) to happen is if the powers-that-be decide the timing is right.
The other favourite question is whether GPS and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) will remain aligned with Anwar after GE16.
In Sabah, for GRS, lingering trauma remains from instances when federal actors used too much of the stick rather than the carrot to force PKR to secure seats and candidate allocations during the 2025 Sabah state election.
In Sarawak, friction may linger between GPS and the federal government because of the high-stakes legal battles involving Petroliam Nasional Bhd (PETRONAS) and the Sarawak state government over regulatory control, oil mining ordinances, and state sales taxes.
Even so, GPS is in no hurry to disrupt federal stability; its primary focus remains ruthlessly local: consolidating its grip on its political crown jewel, Sarawak.
It often feels like elections are the only things happening in Malaysia. A foreign diplomat recently asked me what the true cost of these endless electoral cycles is, not just in ringgit, but in terms of the country’s political and economic stability.
“The Prime Minister and the government can’t focus on long-term reforms or governing effectively when politics and elections are treated as a perpetual national sport,” he told me.
In reply, I asked a question that remained rhetorical: “Perhaps the country should have a snap Federal election instead of waiting for the term to end?”
Recently, we’ve had two state polls, and now there are two more to go. These elections are merely side dishes; political observers are already waiting for the main course. When it will be served up is the big question.
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