Strange pacts on the cards

With surveys showing no coalition likely to win outright, collaborations are possible – even some that seem impossible now.

CAN any of the coalitions form the next government on its own? That must be the most asked question before this 15th General Election (GE15).

But then come other questions. If none of them can, what happens next? Who is likely to partner who to get the numbers for the next five years?

Just days after nominations, the coalitions were already talking about possible collaborations.

Barisan Nasional has indicated its willingness to collaborate with any party or coalition to form a majority while Pakatan Harapan is not ruling out joining forces with Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS).

Pejuang is open to working with Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) post-GE15 while Perikatan Nasional also appears open to post-election pacts.

In essence, no political party is discounting the need for collaboration.

They are being realistic. Most surveys say no single coalition will get the magical 112 seats to win a simple majority and form the government.

While party leaders are telling the media that pacts will be considered after the outcome of the polls, analysts believe the wheeling and dealing has already started behind closed doors.

“Parties seem to be making statements that they will not join with A or B. But if we have a hung Parliament, you will know what the outcome will be like,” said political analyst Prof Dr Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmod of the International Islamic University Malaysia.

Prof Datuk Dr Shamsul Amri Baharuddin of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia agrees.

“Among coalitions in the peninsula and in Sabah and Sarawak, and between Sabah and Sarawak parties, talks are on,” he said.

So what are the possible collaboration scenarios?

For sure, Barisan will invite GPS and GRS to come on board and caretaker Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob has given this assurance even if Barisan manages to clinch a majority in the peninsula.

GPS was once part of the coalition and most parties in GRS were also former Barisan members and a Federal Government should not be one without the voices of Sabah and Sarawak.

Should the coalition need to get “extra support”, it is likely to turn to Perikatan, leaving Pakatan out in the cold.

There have been claims of a Barisan-Pakatan political alignment but it will not be easy for the two coalitions to work together.

Last year, at the Umno general assembly – the party’s highest authority – had endorsed a “No DAP, No Anwar” (referring to Pakatan chairman and PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim) decision.

If Barisan and Pakatan are to work together, the decision will have to be reversed through the party’s supreme council and an extraordinary general meeting.

Prof Nik Ahmad Kamal admitted that a Barisan-Pakatan pact would be difficult but not impossible.

“In politics, anything is possible. Even if they disagree now, they may agree to cooperate after the results are announced. The dynamics are unpredictable,” he pointed out.

If Pakatan were to call the shots, the coalition too will most likely reach out to Sabah and Sarawak, although GPS seems adamant it will not work with the Opposition coalition even if invited.

When Pakatan formed the government in 2018, there was no Sarawak representation in the Cabinet.

Four years on, the state is still sore over how the Pakatan administration had cancelled various projects and manifesto promises for Sarawak, including the 20% oil royalty.

Sabah will surely come on board as Upko is a member of the coalition but with the party expected to win just a handful of seats, it could come down to how former ally-turned-foe Parti Warisan decides to swing.

What if Perikatan has the largest number of seats and needs to forge a political collaboration?

Again, GPS and GRS are obvious choices and they should be agreeable to accepting an offer.

A Perikatan-Barisan partnership is also likely, with the former calling the shots again. It happened before when Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yasssin was prime minister.

What about a Perikatan-Pakatan pact?

Interestingly, Perikatan chairman Muhyiddin has declared that any post-election agreement would only involve parties that have similar directions and principles on Islam and Malay rights.

Prof Shamsul Amri, however, is not discounting a Perikatan-Pakatan pact, even with their member parties – PAS and DAP – being seen as sworn enemies.

“They can work together, even if they need to seal the deal with a memorandum of understanding or a memorandum of agreement,” said Prof Shamsul Amri.

One thing is for sure, there will be no shortage of suitors for GPS and GRS. There will be many seeking their hands in partnership.

They should be spoilt for choice, especially GPS, as Sabah parties seem to be more flexible and open to cooperation.

Prof Shamsul Amri said GPS and GRS would want to work with the leading coalition “but not before their demands are met”.

“This is the time to lay down their terms. What is the point of holding the trump card if you don’t get what you want,” he said.

Although some of the pacts seem impossible to the layman, the country has even seen Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Anwar working together – which shows that anything can happen in politics.

After all, in politics, there are no permanent enemies nor friends. Only permanent interests.