EPL title race is over — the real battle now is for Europe

THE gap between first and second place is now 13 points. While Arsenal have a game in hand over Liverpool, most experts agree that the title race is heading to Merseyside.

With six of Liverpool’s remaining fixtures set to be played at Anfield, fans can expect a victory procession rather than a tense title battle.

With this in mind, and with the FA Cup taking centrestage over the weekend, the drama now lies in the race for European qualification—especially for the Champions League.

The financial rewards from Champions League qualification are crucial for many clubs.

In fact, securing a spot in Europe’s elite competition could be the deciding factor in sustaining long-term competitiveness or being forced to sell players to balance the books.

Next season is the continuation of the Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) era, where every penny counts.

The revenue from European qualification might determine whether clubs can keep their star players or will need to offload academy products to stay within financial regulations.

With five Champions League spots available for Premier League teams next season, let’s assess the contenders and why they need qualification more than others.

ARSENAL: A CRUCIAL STEP IN THEIR PROJECT

Arsenal hold a six-point lead over Nottingham Forest, and given their remaining fixtures, Mikel Arteta’s side look almost certain to secure a Champions League spot – even without a recognised striker.

With Bukayo Saka set to return in March and the emergence of Ethan

Nwaneri, Arsenal shouldn’t have trouble getting over the line.

Champions League revenue will be vital in strengthening the squad over the summer, especially with Alexander Isak rumoured to be a target.

If Thomas Partey departs in the summer, Arteta will also need to allocate his transfer budget carefully to fill key gaps.

NOTTINGHAM FOREST: A RETURN TO GLORY?

For Nottingham Forest, Champions League qualification would be a return to their European royalty status.

With two European Cups to their name, playing in the competition again would be a symbolic triumph.

More importantly, the financial boost from European football could help offset their heavy spending over the past few seasons and allow them to build sustainably.

MANCHESTER CITY: A REBUILD ON THE HORIZON

Manchester City need to qualify for the Champions League because a squad rebuild is imminent. While Pep Guardiola made some signings in January, he faces a major challenge in replacing aging players this summer.

The introduction of PSR has restricted City’s ability to spend freely, making Champions League revenue even more essential for their future squad

investments.

CHELSEA: WHO NEEDS IT MORE—BOEHLY OR MARESCA?

Does Todd Boehly need Champions League football more, or does Enzo Maresca? At this stage, both do.

Boehly is facing mounting criticism from Chelsea fans, many of whom long

for the stability and success under Roman Abramovich. With speculation that the Ukraine-Russia war could soon end, some fans are even dreaming of Abramovich’s return.

For Maresca, European qualification could be the difference between keeping or losing his job. He knows he’s working under a trigger-happy owner and must outperform his predecessors to secure his position for another season.

NEWCASTLE: HOLDING ON TO THEIR STARS

Newcastle must qualify for the Champions League if they hope to keep their top players. Without it, they risk losing key names like Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon, and Bruno Guimaraes, as Champions League clubs come calling.

The fans want silverware, but for the club’s management, financial stability under PSR is the bigger priority.

BOURNEMOUTH: THE HIPSTER CHOICE

A neutral favourite, the Cherries qualifying for Europe would be a fitting end to the incredible season they are having. It would also shine a brighter spotlight on Andoni Iraola while showcasing to the footballing world that smart scouting and strategic acquisitions are the way to run a club successfully.

The money from European qualification could add depth to the current squad. Also, securing a European spot would serve as validation for the club’s data science and analytics team, who have worked tirelessly to identify the players thriving in the league.

ASTON VILLA: AVOIDING FINANCIAL PENALTIES

Aston Villa may sit in 10th place, but they are just four points behind Chelsea, meaning they are still in the hunt for European football.

Villa need Champions League qualification more than most because of their heavy spending in recent seasons, particularly on wages.

Their wage-to-revenue ratio currently sits at 95%, dangerously close to violating European financial regulations. Champions League revenue could be their lifeline to avoiding potential penalties.

Fortunately for fans, while the title race seems all but over, the battle for European qualification is heating up.

With just a handful of points separating 10th place from the final European spot, expect plenty of drama in the remaining 11 games of the season.