THE other day, during a StarTV podcast I hosted with former deputy minister Ong Kian Ming as the guest, I asked him about this month’s most important prediction: Who will win the World Cup?
Then we dove into the real action: Malaysian politics, which has as many surprises as the 2026 World Cup.
I questioned Ong, an adjunct professor at Taylor’s University, about what the Johor polls will mean to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s federal unity government. After all, the current landscape features a bizarre paradox: full-blown open warfare between Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan in Johor, even though both are part of the Madani government in Putrajaya.
The political tremors began when Johor Mentri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi dissolved the state assembly a year ahead of schedule, declaring that Barisan would contest all 56 state seats entirely solo.
According to Ong, who is a master of political data, this was a highly astute political gambit rather than a purely data-driven move. Onn Hafiz is banking on his immense personal popularity to treat these early state polls as a temperature check. It is an audit of Barisan’s standing in its traditional birthplace, but the ripples extend far beyond the southern state.
While the average Johorean is understandably preoccupied with daily existential realities – the rising cost of living, petrol prices, and the gruelling daily commute between Johor Baru and Singapore – political insiders are watching the cracks widen.
Ong scales the current tension between Barisan and Pakatan as a solid seven out of 10. However, he warns that it could quickly escalate to an eight as campaigning peaks, and easily hit a scorching nine by the time the upcoming Negri Sembilan polls arrive.
What we are witnessing isn’t just routine campaign rhetoric; it is a fundamental shifting of tectonic plates. In the podcast, Ong, a former Bangi MP, conceptualised the current dynamics among Malaysia’s major political coalitions through a series of relationship statuses.
He noted that Barisan and Pakatan are heading towards an inevitable divorce, while Barisan and PAS are sizing each other up before a potential dating period. Meanwhile, PAS and Bersatu appear to be fast-tracking their own messy separation.
This shifting landscape highlights the cold reality that politics is ultimately driven by self-interest.
I asked him whether the fight between Barisan and Pakatan is just a wayang (a show) as MPs might fight with their opponents in the Dewan Rakyat but could still drink together in the Parliament coffee house.
“So is this, the Barisan and Pakatan fight in Johor, just to win votes or are there real cracks in this Madani government?” I asked.
Ong said at the end of the day politics is about self-interest: “Self-interest for yourself as a candidate, self-interest for your party, self-interest for your coalition,” he said.
He explained that for PAS, the goal is securing access to federal power, making the party willing to yield the ultimate prize – the prime ministership – to Barisan in a future pact.
“This is a massive bargaining chip that Anwar’s Pakatan can never offer Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi,” he said.
However, I told Ong that, based on my conversations with opposition politicians, the question of who becomes prime minister is a blank slate that will only be decided on election night itself. In reality, the final decision doesn’t rest entirely in their hands; it depends on external factors and ultimately comes down to a numbers game about how many seats each party can win.
Regarding the Johor campaign, Ong observed that over the last six days, a stark contrast in capability has emerged. Barisan has seized the momentum, rolling out a polished, state-backed manifesto early on. Pakatan has missed crucial windows, leaving voters – and even their own candidates – in the dark without a cohesive platform.
This gap stems from a deeper structural vulnerability within Pakatan at the state level. Despite boasting numerous federal ministers and deputy ministers from Johor, the coalition has failed to establish a consensus on a mentri besar designate.
While former Education minister and ex-Simpang Renggam MP Dr Maszlee Malik has stood out prominently on the campaign trail in the Puteri Wangsa state seat, Pakatan has refrained from formally naming him as its MB candidate. Instead, his campaign has occasionally been boxed into caricatures, such as getting called out by critics for mistaking a federal road for a poorly maintained state asset.
The federal government has been working hard to ease border controls at the Johor-Singapore causeway, operating on the traditional assumption that outstation voters returning from the republic will overwhelmingly favour Pakatan. However, Ong points to a potential “Black Swan” event.
During the last general election, non-Malay outstation voters backed Pakatan at a staggering 95%. This time, that support could plummet to 60%. The Black Swan event will occur if a significant portion of returning workers decide to use their ballots to teach Pakatan a lesson over unfulfilled expectations – this would grant Barisan the exact leverage it needs to sweep marginal seats.
So, who will win the jewel of the south?
Ong’s modelling offers three distinct paths, but every single scenario points to a comfortable, dominant victory for Barisan. Even in his worst-case projection for the coalition, it is modelled to secure at least 39 seats. However, with the campaign momentum fully in its sails, Ong’s primary prediction is that Barisan Nasional will win between 45 and 50 seats out of the total 56.
Ong also dropped a prediction: MCA will win more state seats than DAP. With DAP currently holding 10 seats and MCA holding four, a minor swing could see MCA claim eight seats while shrinking DAP’s share down to six.
Such an outcome would completely dismantle the public perception of non-Malay political representation and pave the way for a reshuffled political reality heading into the general elections.
My answer to the World Cup question is France. But I’m more sure of who will win Johor than the World Cup.
