They said a larger electorate, greater participation among younger voters and the absence of Covid-19 restrictions could boost turnout, although mobilising younger and newly registered voters would remain a challenge.
Universiti Malaysia Sarawak associate professor in politics and government studies Dr Arnold Puyok said turnout could range from 65% to 75%, but the expanded electorate could make a higher turnout harder to achieve.
He said the electorate had grown significantly following the introduction of Undi18 and automatic voter registration, but many of the new ones are first-time voters or living outside Sarawak.
“Core voters will come out again. The question is whether new voters will,” he said.
Arnold said greater political awareness, particularly through social media, did not necessarily translate into higher voter participation if voters viewed the outcome as a foregone conclusion, with Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) expected to retain power.
Although the Dec 12 polling date falls during the year-end school holidays and less than two weeks before Christmas, he said high airfares could discourage outstation voters from making a separate trip home.
Universiti Malaya socio-political analyst Prof Dr Awang Azman Pawi said a turnout of between 70% and 73% is realistic.
“A recovery to about 71% is achievable, particularly with stronger mobilisation among younger voters,” he said, adding that the turnout fell to 60.7% in the 2021 election, which was held amid the Covid-19 pandemic.
According to figures from the electiondata.my portal, Sarawak's first state election in May 1969 recorded the highest turnout, with 80% of registered voters casting their ballots.
The median turnout across the 12 state elections was 70.9%.
Awang Azman said the electorate had expanded from about 1.25 million registered voters in 2021 to approximately 2.05 million as of August 2026.
However, he too cautioned that a larger electoral roll would not automatically translate into higher turnout, particularly if younger and first-time voters are not sufficiently motivated.
He added that rural accessibility, particularly for communities dependent on river transport or long-distance journeys, could also affect turnout.
University of Tasmania Professor of Asian Studies Dr James Chin also expects turnout to be higher than in 2021.
“It will be around 70%. I think that's the most they can hope for,” he said.
He added that participation would depend on the competitiveness of the election and factors such as access to leave, weather conditions and the possibility of heavy rain or flooding.
Chin said turnout is unlikely to reach exceptionally high levels if voters believe the outcome is already certain, with GPS expected to retain power.
He also said the cost of travelling home would remain a major obstacle.
All three analysts said the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63) would remain a significant political issue.
Both Arnold and Awang Azman said a stronger mandate could strengthen GPS's position in negotiations with Putrajaya on several matters, including the special grant, oil and gas, and the devolution of powers.
Chin noted that the pursuit of greater autonomy and state rights had become central to GPS's political identity.
