New party not likely to win but could affect Melaka outcome by ‘stealing’ votes
PETALING JAYA: It may have flopped in its debut in the Johor election with all its 15 candidates losing their deposits, but Parti Bersama Malaysia is likely to impact the outcome of at least half of the seats in the coming Melaka polls.
The party may be too small to win seats in Melaka, but not too small to “decide” the winners, say political analysts.
It has already named its candidates for 15 of the 28 seats in the state assembly, which was dissolved on Sept 23.
Going by the last Melaka election results in 2021, 12 of 15 seats eyed by Bersama were won by margins so narrow that the 792 to 2,996 votes gained by its candidates in Johor seemed “large”.
For instance, Barisan Nasional won Serkam by 79 votes and Pengkalan Batu by 131 votes, while Perikatan Nasional took Bemban by 328 votes.
In Johor, that mattered twice.
Barisan took Bukit Batu from Pakatan by 174 votes in a seat where Bersama drew 821, and won Perling by 1,611 while Bersama took 2,996.
The figures, however, do not establish that Bersama cost Pakatan either seat.
Only three of the 15 seats Bersama is contesting in Melaka were won by margins greater than its best Johor tally of 2,996 votes.
All seats – Ayer Keroh, Kesidang and Kota Laksamana – are Pakatan Harapan strongholds.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Assoc Prof Mazlan Ali said Bersama is capable of exerting pressure on Pakatan in constituencies won with narrow margins, especially where the voter base is relatively small.
It could contribute to vote splitting in certain areas, he said.
Saying Johor’s political landscape differs from Melaka’s, Assoc Prof Mazlan said the Johor poll results were an imprecise indicator of Bersama’s potential impact there.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said there is potential for Bersama to have a “notable effect” in Melaka without winning a single seat.
“If Bersama attracts even a few hundred votes in a seat decided by fewer than 100 votes, it can alter the outcome but its impact will be highly constituency-specific,” he said.
Universiti Utara Malaysia politics and international relations specialist Assoc Prof Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani said it was unlikely that Bersama would play a role in determining the winning coalition.
“Its role is just as a spoiler in the election. Bersama’s presence won’t decide who or which party will win the election. At most, they will spoil any party from winning a number of constituencies.”
Election analyst Dr Ong Kian Ming said Bersama was unlikely to make a big enough difference to affect the overall outcome of any seats in the Melaka polls.
“If Bersama were to make a difference, it would likely be in the context of GE16, where national issues will be more important, and where its presence in the Klang Valley will be felt more than in Melaka and Johor,” he said.
