PETALING JAYA: Hotter days and longer dry spells could arrive earlier than usual as El Nino strengthens.
The weather phenomenon has an 81% chance of reaching “strong” to “extremely strong” levels from October, according to the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia).
It said the conditions were expected to persist until the end of the year, with a 97% chance that El Nino would continue into early next year.
The weather outlook up to January next year also points to below-average rainfall, particularly along the west coast, east and southern parts of the peninsula, central and western Sarawak and eastern Sabah.
MetMalaysia said that rainfall deficits are expected to peak sometime this month, in line with the ongoing southwest monsoon and El Nino’s development.
“The haze risk is also raised when compared to neutral years, due to drier atmospheric conditions and lesser rainfall.
“This dry spell increases the risk of both localised and transboundary haze especially if there is uncontrolled open burning,” it said in its long-term weather outlook for the period of August to January next year.
In its drought monitoring report, MetMalaysia said several locations could record rainfall deficits exceeding 35% for a three to six-month period owing to drier than usual conditions.
They are in Negri Sembilan, Melaka, southern Pahang, Johor as well as most parts of central and western Sarawak.
“Southern Johor as well as western and southern Sarawak are also expected to experience dry conditions up till September whereas eastern Sabah has the potential of similar conditions beginning October to December,” it said.
MetMalaysia also cautioned the risk of droughts across parts of Sabah following prolonged periods of rainfall deficits.
Previously, MetMalaysia had stated that the country may experience temperatures of up to 40°C early next year owing to the “Super El Nino”.
It also drew comparisons with the 1997 to 1998 extreme El Nino where South-East Asia experienced severe haze, water shortages and airport disruptions.
During the event, Malaysia also recorded its highest-ever temperature of 40.1°C in Chuping, Perlis, on April 9, 1998.
On a related matter, MetMalaysia director-general Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip advised the people to stay cautious of continuous and excessive exposure to ultraviolet (UV) rays if they are outdoors between 11am and 4pm.
He said Malaysia, as a tropical climate country, receives continuous sun rays throughout the day and that the resulting concentration of UV rays differ based on various factors.
This includes the position of the sun, ozone layers, cloud cover, rain and the existing atmospheric composition.
“Generally, all states have the potential of receiving a high concentration of UV rays depending on the season,” he said when contacted.
Mohd Hisham said the ongoing El Nino could exacerbate the current southwest monsoon, which traditionally brings hotter and drier weather.
The southwest monsoon is expected to last until next month.
Malaysia, he said, also generally experiences lesser cloud cover and days without rain at the tail end of the northeast monsoon which lasts between January and March annually.
“These conditions can possibly turn more extreme in line with the forecasted strong El Nino early next year,” he said.
