PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional may gain significant momentum following its big win in Johor, but the outcomes in Negri Sembilan and the 16th General Election (GE16) will still hinge on each state’s political dynamics, candidates and prevailing issues, say analysts.
According to them, what was achieved by Barisan may not work in Negri Sembilan as Johor has always been the coalition’s bastion.
In the just concluded Johor election, Barisan won 48 out of the 56 seats with Pakatan Harapan taking the other eight.
Perikatan Nasional, which held three seats in the 2022 state election, was wiped out.
Institut Darul Ehsan chairman Prof Redzuan Othman said the circumstances in Johor and Negri Sembilan were totally different.
“There are clear indications that Malay support has returned to Barisan as the coalition won all the seats where Malays made up over 55% of the voters.
“Whether this develops into a nationwide ‘blue wave’ can only be determined through the next state elections and the GE16,” he said.
Redzuan said non-Malay voters generally continued to support Pakatan in urban and mixed constituencies.
“However, this was insufficient to offset Barisan’s dominance in Malay-majority areas.
“As for young voters, the results suggest they remain competitive but are not an automatic support base for Pakatan.
“Barisan still secured about 63% of the votes in polling streams assumed to represent young voters.
“This indicates that they are more pragmatic and factored in economic issues, candidate quality and local credibility,” said Redzuan.
The estimated number of Johor voters, aged 18 and 30, is around 758,000.
Redzuan also said youth support was not entirely solid as turnout is estimated at around 67.9%.
He said a more accurate analysis could only be known after the Election Commission (EC) releases detailed scoresheets.
Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, a senior international affairs analyst with Solaris Strategies Singapore, said Barisan’s emphasis on local issues led to the coalition capturing more votes.
“It would be a strategic mistake for Barisan to think that they can automatically replicate the outcome in Negri,” he said.
Even though Pakatan had dismissed the notion that Johor’s results were not a referendum on Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, Mustafa said the Madani cooperation will still be affected.
“The more Barisan gains support from Malay voters, especially from rural areas, it will spell the end of Madani cooperation.
“The PAS factor will be key on whether the cooperation continues, especially if an Umno-PAS political partnership comes into being,” he added.
Mustafa was referring to the open support given by PAS to Umno in Johor despite both being rivals in some seats.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said Anwar should focus on stabilising Pakatan among its traditional supporters to prevent a “repeat of Johor”.
“Perikatan’s internal problems also made Barisan more stable.
“Nevertheless, voting behaviour in Johor cannot be directly applied to Kedah, Kelantan or Terengganu where PAS remains deeply rooted.
“The real test will be whether Umno can recover Malay support beyond its traditional southern strongholds,” he said.
Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Dr Azmil Mohd Tayeb, however, said Barisan could now go into Negri Sembilan confidently as MCA did well in Johor, doubling its representatives to eight.
“Many Chinese voters in Johor who used to vote for Pakatan either abstained or voted for MCA.
“This pattern might be replicated in Negri.
“It doesn’t bode well for PKR and DAP since this makes up the core of Pakatan supporters.
“Indian voters, meanwhile, have been shifting away from Pakatan and this pattern continues in Johor,” said Azmil.
