PETALING JAYA: Supply-chain risks and the depth of disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are still not fully acknowledged, says the Southeast Asian Futures Initiative Centre (SEAFIC).
At the inaugural SEAFIC-Asean Roundtable titled “Impact of the Global Energy Crisis on ASEAN”, SEAFIC said discussions centred on supply chain vulnerability owing to the disruptions.
“The paper argues that border-trade figures alone provide an incomplete picture of vulnerability because some sectors inherit exposure through domestic and global supply chain networks.
“Specifically for Malaysia, the paper posits that exposure is concentrated rather than economy-wide,” it said in a statement.
SEAFIC is a pioneering think tank dedicated to advancing economic development, international trade and investment, as well as international cooperation in the Asean region.
Petroleum refining, it said, was identified as a key transmission channel, however, noting that some downstream sectors, such as poultry and livestock, appear less exposed at the border but become more relevant once exposed through fertiliser, feed and other upstream inputs are considered.
At the Asean level, SEAFIC said the paper distinguishes among refining-hub exposure, manufacturing-embedded exposure, logistics-driven pass-through and indirect exposure through neighbouring supply chains.
“This distinction matters because countries exposed through refining, manufacturing inputs, freight costs or regional spillovers are unlikely to need the same policy response,” it said.
In the same statement, SEAFIC chairman Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz said the aim of the roundtable was to move discussions beyond headline fuel prices.
“For Asean, the real policy challenge is understanding how a shock travels through production and supply chain networks: where it enters, which sectors absorb it, and when it begins to be felt by households and businesses.
“This is where behavioural change and a greater sense of urgency become critical,” he said.
He also said the impact is neither uniform nor immediate as each country experiences the shock differently, depending on its economic structure, energy dependence, and policy buffers.
“Recognising these differences is essential to shaping timely, targeted, and effective response,” he said.
