PETALING JAYA: Large-scale and socially disruptive measures that can help reduce contact outside the house, school or workplace by up to 75% are vital in curbing the spread of Covid-19, experts say.
Health and Emerging Hazards Cluster head of the National Disaster Management Agency Datuk Dr Ahmad Faizal Perdaus said social distancing within the community was important when the epidemic curve was on the rise, such as in Malaysia, since a week ago.
“The earlier we arrest the transmission, the better it is for the health system overall as this will give medical personnel time to attend to those who are already ill, and to institute proper measures on patients suspected to be infected,” he said.
Dr Ahmad Faizal described the tabligh event at the Sri Petaling mosque as a game-changer, which dramatically pushed up the number of Covid-19 cases.
“Before that, although the numbers were rising, the situation was under control in terms of epidemiology and the attention and treatment given to patients.
“We knew how every single patient got infected, and we can trace the virus forward (to possible contacts) and back (to the source).
“There was no potential strain in the healthcare system,” said Dr Ahmad Faizal, who is also Mercy Malaysia president and a consultant respiratory physician.
He said the large number of attendees at the tabligh event and incomplete data made it difficult to track the source of infection.
“We don’t have a clear indication of ‘patient zero’, the person who spread the disease.
“There’s a high possibility that whatever measures the authorities took, some will go undetected or not detected early enough, so the risk of transmission is going to be very high,” he said.
He said on average, one patient could infect between two and four people, as compared to the seasonal flu, which on average leads to 1.4 new infections.
“Early data in China seems to suggest that asymptomatic patients did not transmit the virus as much as those having symptoms,” said Dr Ahmad Faizal.
“However, later studies indicated that a substantial number of asymptomatic patients may be able to transmit the disease.”
A recent research paper released by the Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team pointed out that intensive and socially disruptive measures were needed in Britain to prevent the spread of the virus.
Prof Neil Ferguson, who is one of the researchers, said drastic measures as implemented in China and South Korea might be needed to bring down transmission levels and to prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed.
“Large-scale social distancing will need to be in place for many months until a vaccine is available,” he said.
The researchers forecast that interventions to only slow down the spread – such as case isolation, home quarantine and social distancing of those over 70 years – could reduce peak healthcare demand by two-thirds and reduce deaths by half.
However, the epidemic would still result in about 250,000 deaths in Britain and overwhelm the healthcare system.
Interventions to suppress the outbreak – case isolation, home quarantine and social distancing of the entire population – can have the biggest impact.
But they noted that while such measures were effective in the short term, it would need to be rapidly reintroduced if the cases start to surge again.
Another project from Britain called BBC Pandemic analysed data on interactions between people of different age groups and locations.
They found that adults, aged 20 to 50, make most of their contacts at the workplaces, while those over 65 in other settings such as shops, restaurants and leisure.
“By avoiding such interactions, those in the high-risk group can reduce the risk of infection by half.
“Changing behaviour and sustaining these changes throughout the outbreak can significantly reduce the risk and help protect the vulnerable,” said one of the researchers Petra Klepac, an assistant professor in infectious disease modelling.
PETALING JAYA: Large-scale and socially disruptive measures that can help reduce contact outside the house, school or workplace by up to 75% are vital in curbing the spread of Covid-19, experts say.
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