IN a recent opinion piece, New York Times columnist and author Tom Friedman, had advised United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi not to travel to Taiwan, reminding her to focus on what the big picture is for the US at the moment in terms of foreign policy, which is ensuring Russia does not win the war in Ukraine.
Well, Pelosi went to Taiwan anyway, sparking a strong response from China.
This has left me wondering what the big picture is for Chinese President Xi Jinping and whether short-term reactions like a strong retaliation against Taiwan following Pelosi’s visit could jeopardise the long-term goals China is aiming to achieve internationally.
President Xi wants basically two things. On the one hand, respect for his nation based on a peaceful acceptance of China’s bigger role in the region and globally, and on the other, yes, reunification with Taiwan. Any miscalculated reaction to Pelosi’s provocative visit could imperil these two foundational ambitions.
The extreme and unforeseeable consequences of an overreaction could even put at risk his own domestic agenda or even his quest for an unprecedented third term at the helm of the Communist Party of China.
That is why the best interest of China would be guaranteed by only a strong response against Taiwan but not a full-blown escalation.
After all, China knows the best means to bring into reality its geopolitical aspirations. First military, especially maritime, supremacy in the South China Sea and possibly the entire Pacific region. Second, a steadfast investment in building peace, stability and cooperation in what is still, from Beijing’s perspective, an unequal and unbalanced international order.
It is a vision where the member states of the Asia-Pacific region would accept the role of China as guarantor of peace and stability according to Beijing’s own interests. The creation of a powerful military that is “programmed” for supremacy, is not an ambitious goal but already a reality and it will grow stronger and bolder as recently shared by the top leadership of the US military.
What instead should make the Chinese leadership think is the type of respect that they will gain by muscling out a stable and conflictless but still hegemonic order. After all, there is a realisation in Beijing that the world it aims to establish would not tolerate another unchecked bossy “big brother” and yet, at the same time, there are moments when China is tempted to unleash its fury and power.
Can the Chinese leadership control such primordial instincts? I guess the long-term goals of China can only be met if President Xi and his comrades in the Central Politburo genuinely strive for the first form of respect but such an approach, strategic and farsighted, requires different posturing and different attitudes.
In this logic are small islets and rocks in the South China Sea so indispensable to ensuring China’s long-term peaceful domination of the region? Militarily speaking such outposts make total sense but are they really in the best interests of China? Is the weaponisation of the South China Sea the only way to ensure China can assume the role it believes it deserves or can it instead be a real hindrance to the bigger prizes it aims for?
I believe that a more nuanced approach to international relations is the only way forward for China to reclaim what it considers as its own inalienable rights, fully conscious that, at the same time, others, including many of its neighbors, some more overtly than others, disagree with it.
Peter Hefele recently reminded us in the EUobserver that for China, domestic and international security are strictly interrelated. Truly embracing President Xi’s new Global Security Initiative, really requires a change of approach unless China continues doubling down on widening the gap between, on one hand, its rhetoric and, on the other, its actions.
If the tendency of preaching nice but acting tough continues, more and more nations will feel disillusioned about Beijing’s real intentions.
Pursuing cooperation and a true and balanced multilateralism rather the current one perceived to be imposed by the US, requires some tradeoffs, both externally and internally.
Perhaps in the former, China could pause its massive military buildup in the South China Sea and start giving some signals that the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) ruling in favor of the Philippines, while continuing to be unfair and unjust to the sovereign claims of Beijing, can be at least interpreted and discussed rather than being outright rejected.
No one expects China to formally and wholly embrace the tribunal’s decision anytime soon but at least, the vitriol around it could be put on hold. Beijing could for example, while still officially opposing it, create a different atmosphere in the region, especially starting a low-level dialogue with Manila, at least to heed some of its concerns.
In relation to the domestic dimension and its effects on the international one, President Xi’s journey toward a third term could be defined by less control and more opening up. At the moment such a change of heart seems totally unrealistic with the country forging ahead with tighter control over every aspect of public life. Yet a civic opening based on people’s participation and deliberation under the framework of the Communist Party could generate positive spillover effects in the international realm.
In order to pursue its strategic goals in the region, President Xi needs to realise that it is essential to win over people’s hearts and earn real respect. If China wants to win the big game without causing major tensions and possibly a real conflict in the region, it needs to repurpose its foreign policy and frame a renewed one based on a more open form of governance domestically.
While we all expected a big scare following Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, pursuing unification through military might will not only be reckless but against the long-term interests of Beijing.
President Xi’s third mandate should surprise his own people and the international community not because China is shying away from its destiny as one of the strongest and more ambitious nations. Rather because this is the only way to win genuine respect and move on its big goals, aware that compromising is something that all superpowers must often accept as inevitable.
I bet that people in Taiwan and certainly in Hong Kong would definitely take notice of such a change. – The Jakarta Post/Asia News Network Simone Galimberti writes on social inclusion, youth development, regional integration and Sustainable Development Goals in the context of Asia Pacific.
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