THE form book and history clearly tell us that Manchester City should beat Chelsea in the FA Cup final at Wembley Stadium in London today.
However, pragmatism points to a battle of gladiators, where on the one side City are the sleek, well-oiled machine that can leave any side from across the globe in their wake.
On the other side Chelsea can be proper disruptors, causing all sorts of chaos to unsettle the favourites and leave them vulnerable to attack from behind their defence.
Pep Guardiola’s City started the season a bit slow, but are up to speed again, dominating their opposition even if Everton did rattle them last week.
Guardiola’s approach is often to control the game with long spells of possession, whereby their superior territorial advantage suffocates their foes, and their midfield structure forces their opponents into retreat and submission.
Chelsea, for their part, enjoy themselves most when they break up play in quick transitions and advance into the final third of the field with a vengeance.
This, in essence, is probably how the final will likely unfold today, unless of course, City find an early goal and then skid away from there, or Chelsea themselves strike in the opening quarter of an hour and grow in stature from that point.
There is little doubt that Chelsea’s main thrust will come through Cole Palmer and/or Joao Pedro, players of immense talent and both more than capable of causing harm to City’s ambitions of a third FA Cup for Guardiola.
For Palmer it will be a case of highlighting again what City let slip through their fingers when they let him leave for London, at the time deeming him somewhat not good enough to cut his mustard with the Blues.
If the hot-headed Enzo Fernandez can control his emotions in the pressure-cooker atmosphere of Wembley, he too could have a huge bearing on Chelsea’s fifth FA Cup final since 2018, during which they won only one.
Guardiola will know that for them to win their second domestic trophy of the season – following their success in the Carabao League Cup – they will need to keep these three marauding Blues in check, and further their cause with the ruthless precision that they have become known for under the Spaniard’s stewardship.
Midfield kingpin Rodri will need to stay focused on cutting through Chelsea’s passing lanes and lend captain Bernardo Silva good support in his tracking of Palmer.
Guardiola will also surely look to the experience of some of his tried-and-trusted lieutenants in the squad, those who have repeatedly been in the midst of title run‑ins, cup finals and Champions League campaigns, to help manage the pressures of today’s cauldron.
It’s difficult not to mention City’s frontline, spearheaded by Erling Haaland with Jeremy Doku and Antoine Semenyo patrolling the wings.
This attack, on most days, is as good as any in England and much better than almost all on the continent.
And for his threat alone, Chelsea will guard against giving Haaland more than a yard or two in any direction, lest he makes them pay dearly for it.
Yet, should Chelsea fixate too much on the lanky Norwegian, Doku and Semenyo could find themselves with some Wembley freedom to exploit – hence the need to cover all one’s bases.
When the curtain comes down on England’s cup competitions today, it will be determined by the polished structures of City or the swashbuckling style of a young, rampant and talented Chelsea side owning the afternoon in London.
Wembley, over the years, has seen both order and disruption, and today, another chapter will be written by City and Chelsea.
And we can’t wait for it.
