LONDON: Copper jumped above US$14,000 a tonne, closing in on a record high as a rebound in Chinese demand and mounting supply risks outweigh concerns about the Iran war’s impact on global growth.
Prices rose as much as 1.2% to $14,106.50 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME), inching closer to an all-time high above $14,500 a tonne set in January.
The move came even as the Iran war truce remains fragile, with US President Donald Trump showing signs of frustration at a lack of progress in negotiations.
Copper futures traded on New York’s Comex jumped to a fresh record of US$6.6455 a pound.
The bellwether industrial metal has rallied strongly in recent sessions on the back of several factors, including a recovery in Chinese demand and a squeeze on Middle Eastern supplies of sulfur, which is used in some forms of copper production.
It’s also become highly correlated to US equity markets as artificial intelligence stocks have surged, given its use in electrical wiring.
“Breaking above US$14,000 highlights how tight the copper market has become,” said Ewa Manthey, commodity strategist at ING Groep NV.
“Low inventories outside the United States and ongoing supply constraints are leaving prices highly sensitive to any incremental demand.”
Copper is up 13% so far this year despite sharp declines in the early weeks of the Iran war amid concern about serious fallout for the global economy.
Enthusiasm for technology-related growth and supply disruptions at major copper mines from Africa to Indonesia are among the bullish factors behind the metal’s resilience.
Investors have been betting on copper price gains as they look beyond the threat that the Iran war poses to the global economy.
They have been placing large options wagers on further price increases, according to Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities.
Orest Wowkodaw, a mining analyst at Scotiabank, now sees the global copper market in a deficit of 350,000 tonnes by 2027. Just two months ago, he was expecting a more balanced market.
“It very much is the perfect storm for copper to the upside, in that the supply side is very challenged despite high pricing,” he said at an event in Toronto on Tuesday.
“I’ve probably never seen a better environment for global copper demand than we do today.”
“This provides an environment where we could see higher-for-longer copper pricing,” Wowkodaw said.
LME copper closed at US$14,021, up 0.6%. Other industrial metals were mixed, with nickel and tin both down 1.6%, while zinc gained 1.5% and aluminium slid 0.5%. — Bloomberg
