Oil prices rose nearly 2% on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session, as efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war appear stalled, with the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway still mainly shut, keeping energy supplies from the key Middle East producing region out of the reach of global buyers.
U.S. President Donald Trump is unhappy with the latest Iranian proposal aimed at ending the war, a U.S. official said on Monday. Iranian sources disclosed on Monday that Tehran's proposal avoided addressing its nuclear program until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.
Trump's displeasure with the Iranian offer leaves the conflict deadlocked, with Iran shutting shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries supply equal to about 20% of global oil and gas consumption, and the U.S. keeping in place its blockade of Iranian ports.
Brent crude futures for June climbed $2.32, or 2.1%, to $110.55 a barrel as of 0638 GMT, after gaining 2.8% in the previous session to its highest close since April 7. The contract is up for a seventh day.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June rose $1.80, or 1.9%, to $98.17 a barrel, after gaining 2.1% in the previous session. An earlier round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran collapsed last week following failed face-to-face talks.
"Talks around ‘peace’ still look largely superficial and lack concrete evidence of de-escalation. Despite the rhetoric, vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz remains curtailed, and that prolonged disruption is what's keeping oil risk premiums elevated," said Phillip Nova's senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.
Ship-tracking data revealed significant disruptions in the region, with six Iranian oil tankers forced to turn back due to the U.S. blockade. However, a liquefied natural gas tanker managed by the United Arab Emirates' Abu Dhabi National Oil Co did cross the Strait of Hormuz and appears to be near India, ship-tracking data showed on Monday.
Prior to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which began on February 28, between 125 and 140 vessels transited the strait daily.
Analysts expect current oil prices to be the new norm, with Suvro Sarkar, DBS Bank's energy sector team leader, seeing a base case situation moving from a de-escalation of the war to a prolonged ceasefire "limbo situation" with oil prices trading between $100 and $125 a barrel.
"With no immediate deal and an indefinite ceasefire providing no certainty on whether the Strait is open or closed, oil prices will trend higher as physical markets catch up with paper markets. Eventually, the conflict will become 'normalised' in financial markets, leading to less volatility but a higher baseline," he said in an email. - Reuters
