HANOI: Vietnam’s stock market is poised to enter a new development cycle, underpinned by structural reforms, market infrastructure upgrades and prospective foreign capital flows, insiders say.
Despite record net foreign outflows in 2025, many experts view those withdrawals as cyclical rather than structural, while medium- and long-term fundamentals remain supportive.
A recent report by SSI Securities Corp (SSI) showed that the market entered 2026 with strong growth momentum, with the benchmark VN-Index approaching its base-case target of 1,920 points earlier in the year before correcting in March.
The pullback was largely attributed to profit-taking, interest rate concerns and geopolitical uncertainties and was viewed as tactical rather than indicative of a reversal in the long-term trend.
Underlying fundamentals continue to support the market outlook.
Analysts pointed to robust economic growth, large-scale infrastructure investment and a shift of domestic capital back into equities as other asset classes such as real estate and gold cool down.
In addition, a pipeline of initial public offerings is expected to expand market depth and improve liquidity.
Market classification upgrades remain a central theme shaping investor expectations.
According to SSI, Vietnam could attract approximately US$1.67bil in passive inflows from global exchange-traded funds if it is upgraded by FTSE Russell, with disbursements likely to be phased over three to five quarters to mitigate volatility.
Beyond FTSE, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) is seen as the next milestone over the medium to long term.
Ongoing reforms, including the removal of pre-funding requirements, the introduction of a central counterparty clearing mechanism, enhanced English-language disclosure and foreign ownership limit adjustments, are expected to bring Vietnam closer to meeting international criteria.
Furthermore, SSI estimates the market could satisfy 17 out of 18 MSCI requirements once these improvements are completed.
Bui Hoang Hai, vice-chairman of the State Securities Commission, said that although the country remains a regional growth bright spot with a stable macroeconomic foundation and strong market expansion, foreign investors still recorded net withdrawals of more than US$5bil in 2025.
He attributed the outflows largely to global capital cycle dynamics, noting that many leading financial institutions and corporations have continued to engage with Vietnam, reflecting sustained interest in the market. — Viet Nam News/ANN
