Economic growth
A RAFT of economic data is due this week, including fourth-quarter 2025 (4Q25) gross domestic product (GDP), the industrial production index (IPI), retail sales and the unemployment rate.
Bank Negara Malaysia is also expected to release its international reserves as at Jan 30.
Malaysia’s economy is projected to have grown 5.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 4Q25, according to the advance estimate released last month by the Statistics Department.
Bloomberg estimates 4Q25 GDP growth at 5.7% y-o-y, up from 5.2% in 3Q25, with full-year of 4.9% in 2025, down from 5.1% in 2024.
UOB Global Economics and Markets Research also estimates 4Q25 GDP growth at 5.7% y-o-y, with full-year growth of 4.9% in 2025, easing from 5.1% in 2024.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg projects IPI for December at 4.8% y-o-y, up from 4.3% in November.
According to Trading Economics’ global macro models and analysts’ expectations, IPI is projected to rise 3% by the end of this quarter.
Singapore GDP
THE republic’s 4Q25 GDP could be revised up to 6.5% y-o-y, from 5.7% in the advance estimates. This follows the December industrial production release and assumes construction and services activity remain unchanged.
Full-year 2025 growth is likely to be nudged higher to 5%, up from 4.8%.
UOB said the Trade and Industry Ministry may revise its official 2026 full-year GDP forecast range upward to 2% to 4%, from 1% to 3%.
Singapore is also expected to announce its Budget 2026 on Feb 12.
UOB economist Jester Koh said this year’s budget could centre on three key themes. Firstly, providing targeted support for low-income households and alleviating cost pressures for businesses amid a K-shaped economic recovery.
Secondly, building an artificial intelligence-ready economy through skills development, innovation and inclusion.
Thirdly, improving access to new markets for small and medium enterprises and multinational corporations to diversify their end-consumer base.
China data
DATA due from China this week includes January’s new Chinese New Year loans, M2 money supply, the consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index (PPI).
ING expects China’s CPI to come in at 0.5% y-o-y, slightly below December’s 0.8%, as the Lunar New Year effect weighs on the data. The PPI is likely to remain negative for the 40th consecutive month, though it is expected to rise to around minus 1.3% y-o-y amid higher commodity prices, it said.
