The Week Ahead - Economic indicators, Singapore inflation, China LPR,

The Statistics Department is expected to release the consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday and the leading index (LI) on Friday. Analysts expect the CPI to expand 3.2%-3.5% in November.(File pic shows the Aeon's Kinta City Mall)

Focus on economic indicators

THERE will only be a handful of economic indicators this week, as trading winds down ahead of the Christmas holidays.

The Statistics Department is expected to release the consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday and the leading index (LI) on Friday. Analysts expect the CPI to expand 3.2%-3.5% in November.

The inflation rate in Malaysia is expected to be 2.3% by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations.

The country’s CPI rose 2.9% in October 2021 from 2.2% a month earlier and above market estimates of 2.8%. For the period of January to October, the country’s CPI grew 2.3% on a year-on-year basis.

Meanwhile, Bank Negara will release its international reserves as at Dec 15 on Wednesday.

The international reserves of Bank Negara amounted to US$116.7bil (RM492.39bil) as at Nov 30. The reserves position is sufficient to finance eight months of retained imports and is 1.3 times total the short-term external debt.

Singapore inflation, industrial data

SINGAPORE is expected to publish its CPI and industrial production data for November this week.

The Statistics Department is expected to release the consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday and the leading index (LI) File pic shows Singapore's iconic Merlion with the business district behind and tourists in front.

Analysts expect price pressures to continue in Singapore, with the CPI to expand 3.3% while industrial production grows 12.5%.

The republic’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.2% in October 2021 from 2.5% in September. It was the highest since March 2013 and beat the 2.8% median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Bank of Thailand meeting

THE Bank of Thailand (BoT) will decide on its monetary policy this week and economists are not expecting any changes to the monetary policy setting.

Bloomberg estimates no change to its benchmark interest rate of 0.5%.

Moody’s Analytics said the central bank is expected to remain on the sidelines in 2022, allowing the economic recovery to gather steam.

BOT

The arrival of the Omicron variant of the virus causing Covid-19 increases near-term uncertainty and downside risk for the recovery of Thailand’s important tourism sector, which has largely been in hibernation for almost two years.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research thinks the BoT is likely to keep its accommodative monetary policy stance for the time being.

China LPR

THE People’s Bank of China will decide on its one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPR) this week.

Both the Bloomberg poll and UOB expect no change at 3.85% and 4.65%, respectively.

Both rates have not changed since April 2020.

According to a Reuters flash poll, China’s benchmark lending rates will likely be set lower next Monday.

Twenty-nine out of the 40 traders and economists polled by Reuters predicted cuts in China’s LPR.

They cited the reason as the need to aid a slowing economy and easier monetary conditions. Among those polled, 15 forecast a five-basis-point cut in the one-year LPR only, while 14 predicted cuts of that magnitude in both the one-year and five-year LPRs.