BEIJING: It’s been a particularly wet start to southern China’s rainy season, and more unusually heavy downpours could be on the way over the summer.
Average nationwide precipitation since the rainy season began on April 1 is 12% higher than normal, making it the second wettest season so far in a decade, according to the China Meteorological Administration. Heavy rains kicked off in late May, bringing uncommonly early and intense precipitation that has continued into June. Guangdong province has seen at least two single-day June rainfall records broken in the past week, the CMA said.
Heavy rain could risk disrupting grain production at a time when Chinese imports are under scrutiny. But it’s also a boon for hydroelectric output just as power demand swings into focus as temperatures rise.
The country’s agricultural purchases from abroad have slumped in recent years due to a sluggish economy and plentiful domestic harvests. However, corn buying has recently picked up, partly because of rain damage to last year’s crop.
Southern China is a major barley and rice producer, while the bulk of the corn belt is further north and won’t see heavy rains until later in the summer. More imports are on the agenda after the White House said China had agreed to large purchases of US farm goods at the May summit between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Hydro output in May was about 9% higher than the average for the month in the preceding five years. That’s helpful for power generators given the pressure on coal production after the Shanxi mine disaster last month. Electricity output climbed 4.2% in May, with southern regions recording peak loads one month earlier than usual due to unseasonable heat.
This time of year is often marked by continuous days of rainfall in China’s south, as warm and humid air ushered in by the southwest monsoon meets colder air retreating northward. But this season’s rains may also be getting a boost from El Niño, the volatile climate pattern that meteorologists have just formally declared present in the equatorial Pacific.
During the strong El Nino of 2016, for example, southern China saw especially intense downpours in May, according to Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the National Climate Center. There’s also research showing that El Ninos that form in the spring, as was the case this year, can elevate rainfall in southern China from April through June.
Still, no two El Ninos are the same. While the pattern has historically been associated with above-average summer and autumn rains in areas south of the Yangtze River, weather models are currently mixed on the precipitation outlook for the months ahead.
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