The on-again, off-again US-Iran peace talks are casting doubt on whether Donald Trump will make his planned visit to Beijing in a few weeks, though the war could raise the diplomatic stakes of the trip if it does go ahead, Chinese observers say.
Hours before a two-week ceasefire was set to end, the US president announced on Tuesday that he was prolonging the fragile truce with Iran.
That came after Vice-President J.D. Vance’s trip to Pakistan for a second round of peace negotiations was first paused and then postponed.
The last-minute flip-flop underscores the deep mistrust between the foes and raises the question of whether Trump is ready to head to Beijing.
Trump initially planned to visit the Chinese capital in late March but rescheduled the trip, his first visit to China since 2017, to mid-May to focus on the war.
While Beijing has never confirmed the dates, it is widely expected that a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could stabilise ties between the world’s two largest economies amid deepening worries that the war and subsequent disruption of global energy supplies will plunge the world into recession.
Observers in China said that the longer the war dragged on, the greater the pressure on Trump and the greater Beijing’s leverage.
Zhu Junwei, director of the Horizon Insights Centre, a Beijing-based think tank, said another delay to Trump’s visit would hurt the president’s credibility but would not have a major impact on the countries’ relationship.
“By the time a leader visits, the negotiators have already settled what can be settled. If something cannot be agreed on beforehand, a meeting between the two leaders will not change that.”
Besides diplomatic tumult, Trump is facing increasing pressure at home.
With the war in its eighth week, Iran’s ongoing closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz has blocked shipments of fuel, fertiliser and other goods, driving up inflation in the United States to become a key issue ahead of midterm elections.
“This could all directly affect the Republicans’ prospects in the November midterm elections,” Zhu said.
She added that Trump would be eager to use the trip to Beijing – and a potential deal with China on purchases of gas and farm products – to “declare his victory to US voters”.
Days before the first round of peace talks in Islamabad earlier this month, Trump said he believed China had helped get Iran to the negotiating table. Citing three Iranian officials, The New York Times reported earlier this month that China pressed Iran to accept the ceasefire with the US.
China has never confirmed Trump’s claims or the report but has said that the US-Israeli strikes are the cause of escalation.
It has also stepped up its own diplomatic pressure. In a phone call on Monday, Xi told Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia that the strait should “remain open to normal navigation”.
“Trump may wish to ask for China’s help over the Iran issue, and judging from official statements, China is unlikely to refuse Trump’s visit because of the Iran issue,” Zhu said.
Diao Daming, a professor at Renmin University’s school of international studies, said Trump’s final decision on whether to make the trip would reflect his administration’s assessment of the war’s fallout and its relationship with China.
“If the conflict persists, a potential visit to China would depend on the Trump administration’s comprehensive assessment of multiple factors – including the Middle East situation and the trajectory of US-China relations.” -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
