Anti-government protesters display the three-finger symbol of resistance during a protest in Bangkok, Thailand, on Aug 24, 2022. - AP
BANGKOK (The Straits Times/Asia News Network): The unprecedented suspension of the Prime Minister by Thailand's highest court on Wednesday (Aug 24), pending a ruling on whether he has reached a legal term limit, has thrown the kingdom's already tumultuous political climate into greater flux.
Whichever way the Constitutional Court rules, the decision will be a blow to Prayut Chan-O-Cha and a win for his political opponents, said political watchers.
The former army chief was suspended from his prime minister duties on Wednesday after the court took up main opposition party Pheu Thai's petition to look into Prayut's tenure as the premier
The petition argues that he should be removed as he had assumed the position on Aug 24, 2014, and has breached the eight-year limit.
After surviving four no-confidence votes, with the latest in July, and attempting to boost Thailand's weaker-than-expected post-pandemic economy, Prayut and his pro-military Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) also face waning popularity and defections.
A court ruling against Prayut that leads to his ouster will signal a weakened government, but restoring him to his post will support only a narrative of a biased system, said political analysts.
"It's a win-win for the opposition. If Prayut does step down, it's 'yay, we helped to do that'. If he doesn't, it gives them more ammunition for the coming election," said Isra Sunthornvut, Thailand country director at government affairs consultancy firm Vriens & Partners.
Under the 2017 Constitution, a prime minister's tenure is capped at eight years in total.
The complication, in Prayut's case, lies in when his term is deemed to have started.
While he had seized power after a military coup in 2014 - the date the opposition holds him to - others contend that the count should start in 2017, when the current Constitution took effect, or after the 2019 election, when he was installed under the new Constitution.
This would mean he can stay in power until 2025 or 2027, if he is able to retain the post in the next general election - due by early 2023.
If the courts decide that Prayut has exceeded the cap, Parliament will vote for a new prime minister from a list of nominees put forth during the 2019 elections.
For now, Deputy Prime Minister and PPRP leader Prawit Wongsuwan is caretaker prime minister while awaiting the verdict that is expected next month.
In view of the impending general election, analysts say the temporary injunction on the Prime Minister could be a tactic to quell the rising political tensions that have sparked several modest but impassioned and concurrent anti-government rallies across Bangkok since Sunday.
"It could be a way to ease public dissatisfaction, given the number of people taking to the streets. Even red shirts and yellow shirts are coming together," said political analyst Punchada Sirivunnabood, referring to colour-coded activists from historically opposing camps that have characterised Thailand's divisive politics for decades.
The Prime Minister's temporary time-out did not appease demonstrators, who regard Prawit, also a military man and close ally of Prayut, as a key power-broker in the pro-junta government.
However, it is believed that clashes over political decisions have caused some tension between the two men in recent years.
Dr Khemthong Tonsakulrungruang posits that Prayut's time could be running out, with his unpopularity reflected in the widespread protests and the injunction order from a court whose members are approved by the military-appointed Senate.
"It might be a sign that someone sees him as a liability and is looking for an alternative to be PM candidate," said the political science lecturer at Chulalongkorn University.
Isra also noted the slim majority where court judges voted five to four in favour of Prayut's suspension from duties.
"Could it indicate a chance they might rule that his tenure is up? Perhaps," he said.
Dr Punchada, however, expects the embattled premier to be back in the top post in time for the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in November, which Thailand is hosting, and the elections to take place only after.
"This conference is really important for Thailand, and they don't want anything bad to happen to it," she said.
